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Real Exchange Rate and Consumption Fluctuations following Trade Liberalization

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Author Info
Jönsson, Kristian () (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
Abstract

Two-sector models with traded and non-traded goods have problems accounting for the stylized fact that the real exchange rate appreciates and consumption booms for several years following trade liberalization, or exchange-rate-based stabilization programs, in small open economies. The paper studies three potential solutions to this ‘price-consumption puzzle’ and evaluates their quantitative importance in calibrated simulations of Spain’s accession to the European Community in 1986. Extending the standard two-sector framework, the paper investigates the effects of relative productivity growth in the traded sector along the lines of Balassa-Samuelson, of time-to-build, and of habit formation in preferences. In contrast to previous studies, we find that habit formation on its own does not enable the model to account for the observed real exchange rate and consumption dynamics. The analysis shows that a calibrated version of the model augmented with all three mechanisms can account for much of the price-consumption dynamics after trade liberalization, without losing explanatory power for other real variables in the Spanish economy after 1986.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 187.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0187

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Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: Non-traded goods; Balassa-Samuelsson; Time-to-build; Habit formation; Dynamic general equilibrium;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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    Other versions:
  6. Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1991. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations : A reconsideration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 241-254, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ariel T. Burstein & João C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2004. "Investment Prices and Exchange Rates: Some Basic Facts," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 302-309, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Rudolfs Bems & Kristian Jönsson Hartelius, 2006. "Trade Deficits in the Baltic States: How Long Will the Party Last?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 179-209, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Ferson, Wayne E. & Constantinides, George M., 1991. "Habit persistence and durability in aggregate consumption: Empirical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-240, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradable Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Hans-Werner Sinn & Michael Reutter, 2001. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," NBER Working Papers 8085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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