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European Banking Distress and EMU: Institutional and Macroeconomic Risks

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Hutchison, Michael M

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Abstract

Financial stability in Europe has received renewed attention with the advent of EMU. This paper examines whether EU country banking systems are particularly vulnerable to systemic risk. Our approach is to explore episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of countries, highlighting the experience of the EU. We estimate multivariate probit models linking the likelihood of banking problems to a set of macroeconomic variables and institutional characteristics such as aspects of bank supervision and regulation, restrictions on bank portfolios, and development of the banking system. Given these characteristics, the model predicts a low probability of banking sector distress in EMU countries. Copyright 2002 by The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 104 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 365-89
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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:104:y:2002:i:3:p:365-89

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  1. Eichengreen, B., 1992. "Should the Maastricht Treaty be Saved?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 74, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  2. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "Bank-based and market-based financial systems - cross-country comparisons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2143, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael Hutchison & Kathleen McDill, 1999. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison," NBER Working Papers 7253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. James R. Barth & Gerard Caprio Jr. & Ross Levine, 2001. "Financial Regulation And Performance: Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 118, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Levine, Ross, 1998. "The Legal Environment, Banks, and Long-Run Economic Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 596-613, August.
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  10. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Jokipii , Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2006. "Contagion and interdependence: measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Research Discussion Papers 15/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Barry Eichengreen & Carlos Arteta, 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1007, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Edward Kane, 2006. "Can the European Community Afford to Neglect the Need for More Accountable Safety-Net Management?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(2), pages 127-144, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bems, Rudolfs & Jönsson, Kristian, 2005. "Trade Deficits in the Baltic States: How Long Will the Party Last?," Working Paper Series 186, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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