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Sectoral shocks and metropolitan employment growth

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Author Info
Gerald A. Carlino
Robert H. DeFina
Keith Sill

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Abstract

Horvath and Verbrugge (1996) argue that when investigating the sources of aggregate fluctuations, it is important to use the highest frequency data available. Using monthly data for the U.S. economy they show that industry-specific shocks are more important in explaining fluctuations in industrial production than are common aggregate shocks. With the exception of Coulson (1999) studies that examine the issue at the subnational level have used low frequency, spatially aggregated data. The authors examine the relative importance of national disturbances versus local industry shocks for employment fluctuations using monthly data on five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Input-output tables are used to quantify the strength of interindustry linkages, which are then used to help identify a structural VAR model for each MSA. Within-MSA industry shocks are found to explain considerably more of the forecast-error variance in industry employment growth (87-94 percent) than do common national shocks to productivity and monetary policy, and the manufacturing, services, and government sectors make the largest individual contributions to local employment variance. The authors also find that the measured importance of national shocks for employment fluctuations increases as the level of spatial aggregation increases.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 00-9.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:00-9

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Keywords: Employment (Economic theory)

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  3. Eswar Prasad & Alun Thomas, 1998. "A disaggregated analysis of employment growth fluctuations in Canada," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 274-287, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Coulson, N. Edward, 1999. "Sectoral sources of metropolitan growth," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 723-743, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hooker, Mark A & Knetter, Michael M, 1997. "The Effects of Military Spending on Economic Activity: Evidence from State Procurement Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 400-421, August.
  6. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Steven J. Davis & Prakash Loungani & Ramamohan Mahidhara, 1997. "Regional labor fluctuations: oil shocks, military spending, and other driving forces," International Finance Discussion Papers 578, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Shea, John, 1996. "Comovement in cities," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44, pages 169-206, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Altonji, Joseph G & Ham, John C, 1990. "Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional, and Industrial Factors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages S198-236, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 49-99. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Todd E. Clark & Kwanho Shin, 1998. "The sources of fluctuations within and across countries," Research Working Paper 98-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  15. Tamim Bayoumi & Eswar Prasad, 1996. "Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and Adjustment - Some New Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 96/81, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-22, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Clark, Todd E, 1998. "Employment Fluctuations in U.S. Regions and Industries: The Roles of National, Region-Specific, and Industry-Specific Shocks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 202-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gilles Duranton, 2007. "Urban Evolutions: The Fast, the Slow, and the Still," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 197-221, March.
  2. Duranton, Gilles, 2002. "City Size Distributions as a Consequence of the Growth Process," CEPR Discussion Papers 3577, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Matteo Bellinzas, 2004. "Dinamiche demografiche, agglomerazione e determinanti economiche. Il caso italiano," Working Paper CRENoS 200407, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Fratantoni & Scott Schuh, 2000. "Monetary policy, housing investment, and heterogeneous regional markets," Working Papers 00-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gerald A. Carlino, 2003. "A confluence of events? explaining fluctuations in local employment," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 6-12. [Downloadable!]
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