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Urban economic base as a catalyst for movements in real estate prices

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  • Coulson, N. Edward
  • Liu, Crocker H.
  • Villupuram, Sriram V.

Abstract

We examine the relation between housing prices in an MSA and its urban economic base. We create and employ new forward-looking employment growth indices that measure the urban economic strength of an MSA and find that it accounts for a significant and sizeable portion of the house price movements in that MSA. We argue that the forward looking measure is an indicator of future agglomeration growth for the MSAs. We further partition the urban economic growth into growth by various industries and track the attribution of their growth to housing prices over time. We find that for some MSAs, home prices are driven by the same set of industries over time, whereas for others, home prices are driven by a totally new set of industries in the later quarters, due to the birth of new industries. We also analyze the impact of the diversification of an urban economic base on home price volatility and observe that diversification decreases home price volatility. The result has larger implications for urban policymakers in selecting the appropriate type of industries relative to their existing mix of industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Coulson, N. Edward & Liu, Crocker H. & Villupuram, Sriram V., 2013. "Urban economic base as a catalyst for movements in real estate prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1023-1040.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:43:y:2013:i:6:p:1023-1040
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2013.09.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan Tidwell & Yan (Olivia) Lu & Junsoo Lee & Piyali Banerjee, 2023. "Nature of comovements in US state and MSA housing prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(4), pages 959-989, July.
    2. Anita Yadavalli & Jim Landers, 2017. "Tax Increment Financing: A Propensity Score Approach," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 31(4), pages 312-325, November.
    3. David Paul Gray, 2023. "Power Laws and Inequalities: The Case of British District House Price Dispersion," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Kauškale Linda & Riemenschneider Frank, 2016. "The Environmental and Economic Substantiation of Investments in Green Buildings," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 126-144, November.
    5. Hernández-Murillo, Rubén & Owyang, Michael T. & Rubio, Margarita, 2017. "Clustered housing cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 185-197.
    6. Ling Zhang & He Wang & Yan Song & Haizhen Wen, 2019. "Spatial Spillover of House Prices: An Empirical Study of the Yangtze Delta Urban Agglomeration in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, January.
    7. Anita Yadavalli, 2017. "The Effect of Enterprise Zone-Related Tax Savings on Economic Development: A Generalized Propensity Score Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 10, pages 83-96, November.
    8. David Gray, 2022. "Do house price-earnings ratios in England and Wales follow a power law? An application of Lavalette’s law to district data," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 49(4), pages 1184-1196, May.
    9. Coulson, N. Edward & McCoy, Shawn J. & McDonough, Ian K., 2020. "Economic diversification and the resiliency hypothesis: Evidence from the impact of natural disasters on regional housing values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Urban economics; Labor market; Attribution analysis; Real estate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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