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The cyclical behavior of regional per capita incomes in the postwar period

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Gerald Carlino
Keith Sill

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Abstract

This paper examines the cyclical dynamics of per capita personal income for the major U.S. regions during the 1953:3-95:2 period. The analysis reveals considerable differences in the volatility of regional cycles. Controlling for differences in volatility, the authors find a great deal of comovement in the cyclical response of four regions (New England, Southeast, Southwest, and Far West), which the authors call the core region, and the nation. The authors also find a great deal of comovement between the Mideast and Plains regions, but these regions are only weakly correlated with national movements. The cyclical response of the Great Lakes region is markedly different from that of the other regions and the nation. Possible sources underlying differences in regional cycles are explored, such as the share of a region's income accounted for by manufacturing, defense spending as a proportion of a region's income, oil price shocks, and the stance of monetary policy. Somewhat surprisingly, the authors find that the share of manufacturing in a region seems to account for little of the variation in regional cycles.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 98-11.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:98-11

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Keywords: Economic history Income

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Coulson N. Edward & Rushen Steven F., 1995. "Sources of Fluctuations in the Boston Economy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 74-93, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
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  4. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Coulson N. Edward, 1993. "The Sources of Sectoral Fluctuations in Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-94, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Carolyn Sherwood-Call, 1988. "Exploring the relationships between national and regional economic fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 15-25. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
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  8. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  10. Carlino Gerald & Defina Robert, 1995. "Regional Income Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 88-106, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 137-59.
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  12. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Steven J. Davis & Prakash Loungani & Ramamohan Mahidhara, 1997. "Regional labor fluctuations: oil shocks, military spending, and other driving forces," International Finance Discussion Papers 578, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Brian A. Cromwell, 1992. "Does California drive the West? an econometric investigation of regional spillovers," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 13-23. [Downloadable!]
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Boschen, John F & Mills, Leonard O, 1995. "The Relation between Narrative and Money Market Indicators of Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 24-44, January.
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  1. Igor Esteban Zuccardi Huertas, 2002. "Los ciclos económicos regionales en Colombia, 1986-2000," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO SOBRE ECONOMÍA REGIONAL 003159, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ECONOMÍA REGIONAL. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andres Rodríguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2003. "Regional economic cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the periphery of the EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p189, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marco Del Negro, 2000. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," Working Paper 2000-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Rebelo, Sérgio, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," CEPR Discussion Papers 5384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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