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Immigration and Social Security in Spain

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Author Info
Clara I. Gonzalez
José Ignacio Conde Ruiz
Michele Boldrin

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to understand the impact of immigration on the Spanish pension system during the next fifty years by building aquantitative-theoretical framework. In order to carry out the exercise of projection of revenues and expenditures in the Spanish pension system, we have developed an Overlapping Generation Model where individuals differ by age, gender, skill and nationality. The Cohort Component Population Projection Method is used for the demographic projections, and for the labor market scenario we have simulated the full labor history of all of our different workers for the period-taking into account the future evolution of the educational levels and five possible situations during their labor history (employed, self-employed, unemployed, disable and inactive). In a first baseline scenario the system will be in deficit around year according to the last official estimations. The arrival of a large number of foreign workers is offering the Social Security System roughly five years of additional time to correct its important underlying unbalances. However after this period, the structural problems will come back and may be even magnified by the presence of an additional number of retired immigrants. Even if immigration reaches its total assimilation in the labor market it will not be sufficient to avoid that the pension system will be in deficit. However, immigration is allowing us to obtain very valuable additional time in order to carry out the necessary reforms.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2009-26.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2009-26

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  1. Sanchez-Marcos, Virginia & Sanchez-Martin, Alfonso R., 2006. "Can social security be welfare improving when there is demographic uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1615-1646. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Sara de la Rica, 2007. "Labour Market Assimilation of Recent Immigrants in Spain," British Journal of Industrial Relations, Blackwell Publishers Ltd/London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 257-284, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kjetil Storesletten, . "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Homapage Papers _005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hipólito Simón & Esteban Sanromá & Raúl Ramos, 2008. "Labour segregation and immigrant and native-born wage distributions in Spain: an analysis using matched employer–employee data," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 135-168, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rafael Domenech & Ángel Melguizo, 2008. "Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency," Working Papers 0803, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Alfonso R. Sánchez Martín, 2007. "An evaluation of the life cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 923-950. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009. "Delaying Retirement in Spain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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