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Immigration and Social Security in Spain

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  • Clara I. Gonzalez
  • José Ignacio Conde Ruiz
  • Michele Boldrin

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to understand the impact of immigration on the Spanish pension system during the next fifty years by building aquantitative-theoretical framework. In order to carry out the exercise of projection of revenues and expenditures in the Spanish pension system, we have developed an Overlapping Generation Model where individuals differ by age, gender, skill and nationality. The Cohort Component Population Projection Method is used for the demographic projections, and for the labor market scenario we have simulated the full labor history of all of our different workers for the period-taking into account the future evolution of the educational levels and five possible situations during their labor history (employed, self-employed, unemployed, disable and inactive). In a first baseline scenario the system will be in deficit around year according to the last official estimations. The arrival of a large number of foreign workers is offering the Social Security System roughly five years of additional time to correct its important underlying unbalances. However after this period, the structural problems will come back and may be even magnified by the presence of an additional number of retired immigrants. Even if immigration reaches its total assimilation in the labor market it will not be sufficient to avoid that the pension system will be in deficit. However, immigration is allowing us to obtain very valuable additional time in order to carry out the necessary reforms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2009-26.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2009-26

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  1. Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana," Working Papers 0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  2. Kjetil Storesletten, 2000. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
  3. Mario Izquierdo & Juan F. Jimeno & Juan A. Rojas, 2007. "On the aggregate effects of immigration in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0714, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Alfonso R. Sánchez Martín, 2003. "An evaluation of the life-cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior," Working Papers 108, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Sara de la Rica, 2007. "Immigrants’ Responsiveness to Labor Market Conditions and Their Impact on Regional Employment Disparities: Evidence from Spain," Working Papers 0029, San Diego State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Raquel Carrasco & Juan Ramón García & Ana Carolina Ortega, . "The Effect of Immigration on the Employment Opportunities of Native-Born Workers: Some Evidence for Spain," Working Papers 2004-17, FEDEA.
  7. Alfonso R Sánchez-Martín & Virginia Sánchez Marcos, 2008. "Demographic change, pension reform and redistribution in Spain," Working Papers 08.04, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  8. Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
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  11. Vincenzo Galasso, 2008. "The Political Future of Social Security in Aging Societies," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026257246x, December.
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  13. Amuedo Dorantes, Catalina & De la Rica Goiricelaya, Sara, 2006. "Labor Market Assimilation of Recent Immigrants in Spain," DFAEII Working Papers 2006-01, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  14. Boldrin Michele & Jiménez-Martín Sergi & Peracchi Franco, 2001. "Sistema de pensiones y mercado de trabajo en España," Books, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation, edition 1, number 201120.
  15. Virginia Sanchez-Marcos & Alfonso Sanchez Martin, 2004. "Can Social Security be welfare improving when there is demographic uncertainty?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 163, Society for Computational Economics.
  16. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009. "Delaying Retirement in Spain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January.
  17. Michele Boldrin & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Franco Peracchi, 2004. "Micro-Modeling of Retirement Behavior in Spain," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation, pages 499-578 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Hipólito Simón & Esteban Sanromá & Raúl Ramos, 2008. "Labour segregation and immigrant and native-born wage distributions in Spain: an analysis using matched employer–employee data," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 135-168, June.
  19. Michele Boldrin & Sergi Jimenez-Martni & Franco Peracchi, 1997. "Social Security and Retirement in Spain," NBER Working Papers 6136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Rafael Domenech & Angel Melguizo, 2009. "Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty,Communication and Transparency," Working Papers 0911, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  21. Gruber, Jonathan & Wise, David A. (ed.), 2004. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226310183, January.
  22. Raquel Carrasco & Juan F. Jimeno & Ana Carolina Ortega, 2008. "The impact of immigration on the wage structure : Spain 1995-2002," Economics Working Papers we080603, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Irse para Volver
    by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis on 2012-10-25 06:00:24
  2. Repasando la Dinámica Reciente de la Población en España.
    by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis on 2014-07-17 08:02:11
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. Conde Ruiz, José Ignacio. & Gonzalez, Clara I., 2012. "Reforma de pensiones 2011 en España: una primera valoración," Economic Reports 01-2012, FEDEA.
  2. Javier Suarez, 2010. "The Spanish Crisis: Background And Policy Challenges," Working Papers wp2010_1005, CEMFI.
  3. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2013. "Reforma de pensiones 2011 en España," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 204(1), pages 9-44, March.
  4. Conde-Ruiz, J. Ignacio & Gonzalez, Clara I., 2012. "Spain 2011 Pension Reform," Working Papers 2012-03, FEDEA.

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