Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain. On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency
AbstractIn this paper we suggest a set of indicators about the future performance of the Spanish public pension system and a suitable method of representing their uncertainty, in order to improve the communication to the public opinion about its main future challenges. Spain seems a particularly interesting case in Europe to illustrate our proposals, since the social security system has been in surplus for nine consecutive years, in sharp contrast to the projections made just a decade ago, but, at the same time, most projections foresee for Spain one of the highest increases in public expenditure among EU countries due to ageing. We argue that simple, transparent, credible, public and periodic indicators, which take explicitly into account the uncertainty about future demographic, economic and institutional developments, may contribute to improve the debate on the policies needed to strengthen the pension system.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 0911.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Pensions; projections; communication; uncertainty.;
Other versions of this item:
- Rafael Domenech & Ángel Melguizo, 2008. "Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency," Working Papers 0803, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2010-04-11 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-EUR-2010-04-11 (Microeconomic European Issues)
- NEP-LAB-2010-04-11 (Labour Economics)
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- Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Domenech, 2011.
"El impacto sobre el gasto de la reforma de las pensiones: una primera estimacion,"
1109, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Doménech, 2011. "El impacto sobre el gasto de la reforma de las pensiones: una primera estimación," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 865.11, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Doménech, 2011. "El impacto sobre el gasto de la reforma de las pensiones: una primera estimación," Economic Reports 03-2011, FEDEA.
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- Clara I. Gonzalez & José Ignacio Conde Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2009. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2009-26, FEDEA.
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