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Spanish Pension System: Population Aging and Immigration Policy

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Author Info
Javier Vázquez Grenno () (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)

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Abstract

There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Oce (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of tting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur de cits until 2018, from then de cits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona in its series Working Papers with number wpdea0902.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea0902

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Related research
Keywords: Immigration policy; public pensions; sustainability.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. M. Collado & Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2004. "Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 335-353, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, . "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-17, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  4. Alan J. Auerbach & Philip Oreopoulos, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007. "A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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