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On The Sustainability of the UK State Pension System in the Light of Population Ageing and Declining Fertility

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Author Info

  • David Blake
  • Les Mayhew

Abstract

As a result of population ageing and declining fertility, the UK state pension system is unlikely to continue to be able to deliver the current level of pensions without some combination of a higher state pension age and a steady inflow of young immigrant workers from abroad. However, with prudent economic management and continuing economic growth, the need for additional immigrants can be contained and modest real increases in pensions are also a possibility. Higher economic activity rates among older people, including deferred retirement, will to some extent compensate but not eliminate these pressures. If fertility picks up over the next few years, this will also help, but not until after 2030. Copyright 2006 Royal Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 116 (2006)
Issue (Month): 512 (06)
Pages: F286-F305

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:116:y:2006:i:512:p:f286-f305

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Cited by:
  1. Muñoz de Bustillo, Rafael & Antón, José-Ignacio, 2009. "Immigration and Social Benefits in a Mediterranean Welfare State: The Case of Spain," MPRA Paper 13849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Kravdal, Øystein, 2013. "Reflections on the Search for Fertility Effects on Happiness," Memorandum 10/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  3. Ciliberto, Federico & Miller, Amalia R & Nielsen, Helena S & Simonsen, Marianne, 2013. "Playing the Fertility Game at Work: An Equilibrium Model of Peer Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 9429, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Javier Vazquez Grenno, 2010. "Spanish pension system: Population aging and immigration policy," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 195(4), pages 37-64, december.
  5. Gori, Luca & Sodini, Mauro, 2011. "Nonlinear dynamics in an OLG growth model with young and old age labour supply: the role of public health expenditure," MPRA Paper 28180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Øystein Kravdal, 2010. "Demographers’ interest in fertility trends and determinants in developed countries: Is it warranted?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(22), pages 663-690, April.
  7. Rosa Aísa & Fernando Pueyo & Marcos Sanso, 2012. "Life expectancy and labor supply of the elderly," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 545-568, January.
  8. Gurgen Aslanyan, 2012. "Migration Challenge for PAYG," FIW Working Paper series 101, FIW.
  9. Mauricio Arias & Juan Carlos Mendoza, . "Un modelo de simulación del Régimen Pensional de Ahorro Individual con Solidaridad en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 044, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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