A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050
AbstractThe need for long-term fiscal projections is self evident. Of these projections, pension expenditure is one of the most important since firstly it represents a large share of total expenditure, and secondly because of the positive correlation between this variable and demographic ageing. In this paper, we develop a model to project contributory pension expenditures in the Spanish Social Security System disaggregating the results by pension category, social security regime and sex. The most salient of the results obtained is the expected steady growth of total expenditure in contributory pensions. This would lie around 15% of GDP around 2045 compared to its initial level of barely 8% even though the baseline scenario incorporates a substantial recovery of employment and female participation rates. By pension categories, retirement pensions are those that determine the tendency of total expenditure evolution. Interesting conclusions can also be extracted from the analysis by sex. For instance, even accounting for an increase in female retirement pensions due to their higher participation, the corresponding increase in widow male pensions implies a higher total increase of the total number of contributory pensions accruing to men.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by IEF in its journal Hacienda Pública Española/Revista de Economía Pública.
Volume (Year): 182 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pensions system; sustainability; public expenditure.;
Other versions of this item:
- Joan Gil & Miguel-Ángel López-García & Jorge Onrubia & Concepción Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, . "A Projection Model Of The Contributory Pension Expenditure Of The Spanish Social Security System: 2004-2050," Working Papers 30-06 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Meyerson, Noah & Sabelhaus, John, 2000. "Uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 3), pages 515-30, September.
- Fidel Picos Sánchez, . "Modelo Dual De Irpf Y Equidad: Un Nuevo Enfoque Teórico Y Su Aplicación Al Caso Español," Working Papers 8-04 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- Miguel Ángel López García, .
"La Vivienda Y La Reforma Fiscal De 1998: Un Ejercicio De Simulación(*),"
7-04 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- Miguel-Angel López García, 2005. "La vivienda y la reforma fiscal de 1998: un ejercicio de simulación," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 175(4), pages 123-147, december.
- Herce San Miguel José Antonio & Ahn Namkee & Alonso Meseguer Javier, 2003. "Gastos sanitario y envejecimiento de la población en España," Working Papers 201015, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
- Edgardo Ruggiero & Peter S. Heller & Menachem Katz & Robert Alan Feldman & Richard Hemming & Peter Kohnert & Ziba Farhadian & Donogh McDonald & Ahsan S. Mansur & Bernard Nivollet, 1986. "Aging and Social Expenditure in the Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025," IMF Occasional Papers 47, International Monetary Fund.
- Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008.
"Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures,"
Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
- Juan F. Jimeno & Juan A. Rojas & Sergio Puente, 2006. "Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Banco de Espaï¿½a Occasional Papers 0601, Banco de Espa�a.
- Franco, Daniele & Marino, Maria Rosaria & Zotteri, Stefania, 2004. "Pension Expenditure Projections, Pension Liabilities and European Union Fiscal Rules," Discussion Paper 231, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- José María Arranz & Carlos García-Serrano, . "¿Qué Ha Sucedido Con La Estabilidad Del Empleo En España?. Un Análisis Desagregado Con Datos De La Epa: 1987-2003(*)," Working Papers 4-04 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- Clara I. Gonzalez & José Ignacio Conde Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2009.
"Immigration and Social Security in Spain,"
- Zenon Jiménez-Ridruejo Ayuso & Carlos Borondo Arribas & Julio López Díaz & Carmen Lorenzo Lago & Carmen Rodríguez Sumaza, 2009. "El efecto de la inmigración en la sostenibilidad a largo plazo del sistema de pensiones en España," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 188(1), pages 74-121, March.
- Javier Diaz Gimenez & Julian Diaz Saavedra, 2014. "The Future of Spanish Pensions," ThE Papers 14/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
- Javier Vazquez Grenno, 2010.
"Spanish pension system: Population aging and immigration policy,"
Hacienda Pública Española,
IEF, vol. 195(4), pages 37-64, december.
- Javier Vázquez Grenno, 2009. "Spanish Pension System: Population Aging and Immigration Policy," Working Papers wpdea0902, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
- Manuela Bosch-Princep (Universitat de Barcelona) & Daniel Vilalta (Independent Pension Consultant), 2012. "Quantitative reduction in retirement benefits by the 2011 Spanish Social Security reform," Working Papers in Economics 281, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Olga Cantó Sánchez) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Olga Cantó Sánchez to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.