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A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050

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Author Info

  • Joan Gil

    ()
    (Centre d’Anàlisi Econòmica i de les polítiques Socials (CAEPS), Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Miguel Angel López García

    ()
    (Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona)

  • Jorge Onrubia

    ()
    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Cío Patxot

    ()
    (Instituto de Estudios Fiscales y CAEPS, Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Guadalupe Souto

    ()
    (Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona)

Abstract

The need for long-term fiscal projections is self evident. Of these projections, pension expenditure is one of the most important since firstly it represents a large share of total expenditure, and secondly because of the positive correlation between this variable and demographic ageing. In this paper, we develop a model to project contributory pension expenditures in the Spanish Social Security System disaggregating the results by pension category, social security regime and sex. The most salient of the results obtained is the expected steady growth of total expenditure in contributory pensions. This would lie around 15% of GDP around 2045 compared to its initial level of barely 8% even though the baseline scenario incorporates a substantial recovery of employment and female participation rates. By pension categories, retirement pensions are those that determine the tendency of total expenditure evolution. Interesting conclusions can also be extracted from the analysis by sex. For instance, even accounting for an increase in female retirement pensions due to their higher participation, the corresponding increase in widow male pensions implies a higher total increase of the total number of contributory pensions accruing to men.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by IEF in its journal Hacienda Pública Española/Revista de Economía Pública.

Volume (Year): 182 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 75-116

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Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2007:v:182:i:3:p:75-116

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Keywords: Pensions system; sustainability; public expenditure.;

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References

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  1. Meyerson, Noah & Sabelhaus, John, 2000. "Uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 3), pages 515-30, September.
  2. Fidel Picos Sánchez, . "Modelo Dual De Irpf Y Equidad: Un Nuevo Enfoque Teórico Y Su Aplicación Al Caso Español," Working Papers 8-04 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
  3. Herce San Miguel José Antonio & Ahn Namkee & Alonso Meseguer Javier, 2003. "Gastos sanitario y envejecimiento de la población en España," Working Papers 201015, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
  4. Miguel-Angel López García, 2005. "La vivienda y la reforma fiscal de 1998: un ejercicio de simulación," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 175(4), pages 123-147, december.
  5. Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
  6. Edgardo Ruggiero & Peter S. Heller & Menachem Katz & Robert Alan Feldman & Richard Hemming & Peter Kohnert & Ziba Farhadian & Donogh McDonald & Ahsan S. Mansur & Bernard Nivollet, 1986. "Aging and Social Expenditure in the Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025," IMF Occasional Papers 47, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Franco, Daniele & Marino, Maria Rosaria & Zotteri, Stefania, 2004. "Pension Expenditure Projections, Pension Liabilities and European Union Fiscal Rules," Discussion Paper 231, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  8. José María Arranz & Carlos García-Serrano, . "¿Qué Ha Sucedido Con La Estabilidad Del Empleo En España?. Un Análisis Desagregado Con Datos De La Epa: 1987-2003(*)," Working Papers 4-04 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Manuela Bosch-Princep (Universitat de Barcelona) & Daniel Vilalta (Independent Pension Consultant), 2012. "Quantitative reduction in retirement benefits by the 2011 Spanish Social Security reform," Working Papers in Economics 281, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  2. Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.
  3. Javier Diaz Gimenez & Julian Diaz Saavedra, 2014. "The Future of Spanish Pensions," ThE Papers 14/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  4. Javier Vazquez Grenno, 2010. "Spanish pension system: Population aging and immigration policy," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 195(4), pages 37-64, december.
  5. Zenon Jiménez-Ridruejo Ayuso & Carlos Borondo Arribas & Julio López Díaz & Carmen Lorenzo Lago & Carmen Rodríguez Sumaza, 2009. "El efecto de la inmigración en la sostenibilidad a largo plazo del sistema de pensiones en España," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 188(1), pages 74-121, March.

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