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Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures

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Author Info

  • Juan F. Jimeno

    ()
    (Banco de España
    Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
    Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA))

  • Juan A. Rojas

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Sergio Puente

    ()
    (Banco de España)

Abstract

In this paper we survey the features of different approaches available in the literature used to study the effects of the aging of the population on Social Security expenditures. We comment on the weaknesses and strengths of each of them, and perform a quantitative analysis by comparing the results they imply in the particular case of the Spanish economy. Finally, we highlight some elements of the modeling strategies on which more evidence is needed for a correct evaluation of the problem at hand.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/06/Fic/do0601e.pdf
File Function: First version, January 2006
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers with number 0601.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:0601

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Keywords: aging; social security; expenditures; modeling;

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References

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  1. Rojas, Juan A., 2005. "Life-cycle earnings, cohort size effects and social security: a quantitative exploration," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 465-485, February.
  2. James Poterba, 2004. "The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 10851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
  4. Luis Puch & Omar Licandro, . "Are there any special features in the Spanish business cycles?," Working Papers 97-06, FEDEA.
  5. Alfonso R. Sánchez Martín, 2001. "Endogenous Retirement And Public Pension System Reform In Spain," Economics Working Papers we013503, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  6. Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001. "Social Security," NBER Working Papers 8451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier.
  7. Michele Boldrin & Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno & Franco Peracchi, 1999. "The future of pensions in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 287-320, October.
  8. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Heiß, Florian & Winter, Joachim, 2000. "Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return," Discussion Papers 589, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  9. Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey Liebman, 2000. "The Distributional Effects of an Investment-Based Social Security System," NBER Working Papers 7492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Angus S. Deaton & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Christina Paxson, 2002. "Social Security and Inequality over the Life Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 115-148 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2002. "Distributional Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 327-370 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "Projected U.S. demographics and social security," Working Paper Series WP-98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  13. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
  14. Coronado Julia Lynn & Fullerton Don & Glass Thomas, 2011. "The Progressivity of Social Security," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-45, November.
  15. James M. Poterba, 2004. "Impact of population aging on financial markets in developed countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 43-53.
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