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Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures

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Author Info
Juan F. Jimeno () (Banco de España, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))
Juan A. Rojas () (Banco de España)
Sergio Puente () (Banco de España)

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Abstract

In this paper we survey the features of different approaches available in the literature used to study the effects of the aging of the population on Social Security expenditures. We comment on the weaknesses and strengths of each of them, and perform a quantitative analysis by comparing the results they imply in the particular case of the Spanish economy. Finally, we highlight some elements of the modeling strategies on which more evidence is needed for a correct evaluation of the problem at hand.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/06/Fic/do0601e.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, January 2006
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Occasional Papers with number 0601.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:0601

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Related research
Keywords: aging; social security; expenditures; modeling;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alfonso R. Sánchez Martín, 2001. "Endogenous Retirement And Public Pension System Reform In Spain," Economics Working Papers we013503, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Julia Lynn Coronado & Don Fullerton & Thomas Glass, 2000. "The Progressivity of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 7520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Juan F. Jimeno, . "El sistema de pensiones contributivas en España: Cuestiones básicas y perspectivas en el medio plazo," Working Papers 2000-15, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Juan A. Rojas, . "Life-cycle Earnings Cohort Size Effects and Social Security. A Quantitative Exploration," Studies on the Spanish Economy 88, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Michele Boldrin & Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno & Franco Peracchi, . "The future of pension systems in Europe. A reappraisal," Working Papers 99-08, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Heiss, Florian & Winter, Joachim, . "Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return," IVS discussion paper series 589, Institut für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik (IVS), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Barry Bosworth & Gary Burtless, 2002. "Pension Reform in the Presence of Financial Market Risk," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2002-01, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Luis A. Puch & Omar Licandro, 1997. "Are there any special features in the Spanish business cycle?," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(2), pages 361-394, May. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2002. "Distributional Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 327-370 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  14. Angus Deaton & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Christina Paxson, 2000. "Social Security and Inequality over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Casado Marín, 2008. "Policy options for a public long-term care system in Spain: a microsimulation model," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 186(3), pages 61-90, October. [Downloadable!]
  2. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009. "Delaying Retirement in Spain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. David Casado & Pilar García Gómez & Ángel López, 2007. "Informal care and labour force participation among middle-aged women in Spain," Working Papers, Research Center on Health and Economics 1023, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mario Catalán & Jaime Guajardo & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 2007. "Coping with Spain's Aging: Retirement Rules and Incentives," IMF Working Papers 07/122, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. David Casado & Pilar García Gómez & Ángel López, 2007. "Informal care and labour force participation among middle-aged women in Spain," Economics Working Papers 1023, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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