Effects of demographic development, labour supply and pension reforms on the future pension burden
AbstractA much higher old-age dependency ratio together with more generous pension benefits will lead to a substantial increase in the future pension burden in Norway. The challenges of financing the increasing pension expenditures depend on the development in demographic characteristics like fertility, mortality and immigration, as well as characteristics affecting supply of labour, like education, disability, retirement age, participation rates and part time work (especially for women), and the design of the pension system. By use of a dynamic micro simulation model the paper analyses and projects how these factors will affect the expenditures and financing of the Norwegian National Insurance Scheme. The model also allows analyses of distributional effects of pension reforms.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 418.
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Social security; pension expenditures; demographic forecasts; retirement;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
- J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-06-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2005-06-14 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-PBE-2005-06-14 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz & Willi Leibfritz, 1999.
"An International Comparison of Generational Accounts,"
in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 73-102
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1998. "An International Comparison of Generational Accounts," NBER Working Papers 6447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2002. "Different Approaches to Pension Reform from an Economic Point of View," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Pension Reform in Europe, pages 49-84 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Espenshade & Leon Bouvier & W. Arthur, 1982. "Immigration and the stable population model," Demography, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 125-133, February.
- Roel Beetsma, 2001.
"The Budgeting and Economic Consequences of Ageing in The Netherlands,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
630, CESifo Group Munich.
- Beetsma, Roel & Bettendorf, Leon & Broer, Peter, 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 987-1013, September.
- Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Bettendorf , L.J.H. & Broer, D.P., 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-383717, Tilburg University.
- David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October.
- Lindbeck, Assar & Persson, Mats, 2002.
"The Gains from Pension Reform,"
712, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Martin S. Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2002.
"The Distributional Effects of an Investment-Based Social Security System,"
in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 263-326
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey Liebman, 2000. "The Distributional Effects of an Investment-Based Social Security System," NBER Working Papers 7492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B Liebman, 2002. "The Distributional Effects of an Investment-Based Social Security System," Working Papers 02-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001.
NBER Working Papers
8451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dennis Fredriksen & Kim Massey Heide & Erling Holmøy & Ingeborg Foldøy Solli, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of proposed pension reforms in Norway," Discussion Papers 417, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Hernaes, Erik & Sollie, Marte & Strom, Steinar, 2000. " Early Retirement and Economic Incentives," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 481-502, June.
- Martin Feldstein, 1996.
"The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform,"
NBER Working Papers
5413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
- Peter Diamond, 2004. "Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24, March.
- Zhang, Jie, 2003. "Comparing social security programs with leisure and bequests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 59-66, January.
- Disney, Richard, 2000. "Crises in Public Pension Programmes in OECD: What Are the Reform Options?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F1-23, February.
- Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel Leigh & Etibar Jafarov, 2007. "Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway," IMF Working Papers 07/241, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (J Bruusgaard).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.