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Effects of demographic development, labour supply and pension reforms on the future pension burden

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  • Dennis Fredriksen
  • Nils Martin Stølen

    ()
    (Statistics Norway)

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    Abstract

    A much higher old-age dependency ratio together with more generous pension benefits will lead to a substantial increase in the future pension burden in Norway. The challenges of financing the increasing pension expenditures depend on the development in demographic characteristics like fertility, mortality and immigration, as well as characteristics affecting supply of labour, like education, disability, retirement age, participation rates and part time work (especially for women), and the design of the pension system. By use of a dynamic micro simulation model the paper analyses and projects how these factors will affect the expenditures and financing of the Norwegian National Insurance Scheme. The model also allows analyses of distributional effects of pension reforms.

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    File URL: http://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp418.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 418.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:418

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    Keywords: Social security; pension expenditures; demographic forecasts; retirement;

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    References

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    1. Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B Liebman, 2002. "The Distributional Effects of an Investment-Based Social Security System," Working Papers 02-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1998. "An International Comparison of Generational Accounts," NBER Working Papers 6447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier.
    4. Zhang, Jie, 2003. "Comparing social security programs with leisure and bequests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 59-66, January.
    5. Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Bettendorf , L.J.H. & Broer, D.P., 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-383717, Tilburg University.
    6. Peter Diamond, 2004. "Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24, March.
    7. Disney, Richard, 2000. "Crises in Public Pension Programmes in OECD: What Are the Reform Options?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F1-23, February.
    8. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
    10. Dennis Fredriksen & Kim Massey Heide & Erling Holmøy & Ingeborg Foldøy Solli, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of proposed pension reforms in Norway," Discussion Papers 417, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    11. Hernaes, Erik & Sollie, Marte & Strom, Steinar, 2000. " Early Retirement and Economic Incentives," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 481-502, June.
    12. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October.
    13. Martin Feldstein, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," NBER Working Papers 5413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Thomas Espenshade & Leon Bouvier & W. Arthur, 1982. "Immigration and the stable population model," Demography, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 125-133, February.
    15. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2002. "Different Approaches to Pension Reform from an Economic Point of View," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Pension Reform in Europe, pages 49-84 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. Daniel Leigh & Etibar Jafarov, 2007. "Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway," IMF Working Papers 07/241, International Monetary Fund.

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