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The Distributional Effects of an Investment-Based Social Security System

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Author Info
Martin Feldstein
Jeffrey B Liebman

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Abstract

In this paper we study the distributional impact of a change from the existing pay-as-you-go Social Security system to one that combines both pay-as-you-go and investment-based elements. Such a transition can avert the large tax increases that would otherwise be necessary to maintain the level of benefits promised under current law as life expectancy increases. According to the Social Security actuaries (Board of Trustees, 1999), retaining the existing pay-as-you-go system would eventually require raising the current 12.4 percent Social Security payroll tax rate to about 19 percent to maintain the current benefit rules or cutting benefits by more than one-third in order to avoid a tax increase. In contrast, previous research showed that adding an investment-based component with savings equal to two percent of covered earnings to the existing 12.4 percent pay-as-you-go system would be sufficient to maintain the benefits promised under current rules without any increase in tax rates (Feldstein and Samwick 1997, 1998a, 1998b).

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File URL: http://www.ces.census.gov/index.php/ces/cespapers?down_key=101646
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Paper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 02-08.

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Date of creation: Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:02-08

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Related research
Keywords: CES; economic; research; micro; data; microdata; chief; economist;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael D. Hurd & John B. Shoven, 1985. "The Distributional Impact of Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions, Labor, and Individual Choice, pages 193-222 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Julia Lynn Coronado & Don Fullerton & Thomas Glass, 2000. "The Progressivity of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 7520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Judith Chevalier & Glenn Ellison, 1999. "Career Concerns Of Mutual Fund Managers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 389-432, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1997. "The Economics of Prefunding Social Security and Medicare Benefits," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 115-164 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Peter Diamond, 2004. "Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24, March. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael J. Boskin & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Douglas J. Puffert & John B. Shoven, 1987. "Social Security: A Financial Appraisal Across and Within Generations," NBER Working Papers 1891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1998. "Social Security Benefits of Immigrants and U.S. Born," NBER Working Papers 6478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lee, Ronald & Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1998. "Uncertain Demographic Futures and Social Security Finances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 237-41, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jeffrey B Liebman, 2002. "Redistribution in the Current U.S. Social Security System," Working Papers 02-09, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. S. B. Aruoba & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2005. "Comparing Solution Methods for Dynamic Equilibrium Economies," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000855, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jeffrey Brown, 2002. "Redistribution And Insurance: Mandatory Annuitization With Mortality Heterogeneity," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2001-02, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2000. "How Effective is Redistribution Under the Social Security Benefit Formula?," NBER Working Papers 7597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 11098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Dennis Fredriksen and Nils Martin Stølen, 2005. "Effects of demographic development, labour supply and pension reforms on the future pension burden," Discussion Papers 418, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luís Eduardo Afonso & Reynaldo Fernandes, 2003. "Uma Estimativa dos Aspectos Distributivos da Previdência Social no Brasil," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] f15, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  8. Juan F. Jimeno, . "Incentivos y desigualdad en el sistema español de pensiones contributivas de jubilación," Working Papers 2002-13, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2000. "How Effective is Redistribution Under the Social Security Benefit Formula?," Working Papers wp005, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  10. Melissa M. Favreault & Joshua H. Goldwyn & Karen E. Smith & Lawrence H. Thompson & Cori E. Uccello & Sheila R. Zedlewski, 2004. "Reform Model Two of the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security: Distributional Outcomes Under Different Economic and Behavioral Assumptions," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-19, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
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