Spanish pension system: Population aging and immigration policy
AbstractThere is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as a consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension systemwill become unsustainable in the decades coming. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pension sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) an immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of adjusting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. Themain results are the following. The current systemwill not incur deficits until 2022, fromthis point onwards deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure on pensions in terms of GDP will increased from 8.3% in 2009 to 17.0% in 2049. An immigration policy –aimed at foreign young people– would help, but would not ensure the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines pension growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2028.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by IEF in its journal Hacienda Pública Española/Revista de Economía Pública.
Volume (Year): 195 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (december)
Immigration policy; public pensions; fiscal sustainability.;
Other versions of this item:
- Javier Vázquez Grenno, 2009. "Spanish Pension System: Population Aging and Immigration Policy," Working Papers wpdea0902, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
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