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El impacto sobre el gasto de la reforma de las pensiones: una primera estimación

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  • Angel de la Fuente
  • Rafael Doménech

Abstract

En este trabajo se presenta una primera estimación del impacto de la reforma del sistema de pensiones acordada por el Gobierno y los agentes sociales en enero de 2011. Tras actualizar las proyecciones de gasto en pensiones realizadas por de la Fuente y Doménech (2009) para el período 2008-60, se analiza el impacto sobre esta variable de la elevación de la edad de jubilación hasta los 67 años, la ampliación del período de cómputo de las pensiones y el aumento en el número de años de cotización necesarios para alcanzar el 100% de la base reguladora. Condicionados a los supuestos realizados sobre la evolución del empleo, la productividad y la demografía, los resultados sugieren que estas medidas tendrán un impacto apreciable sobre el gasto en pensiones, con un ahorro que ascenderá a dos puntos de PIB al final del período transitorio en 2027. No obstante, dadas las incertidumbres existentes sobre la evolución futura de muchas de las variables que afectan a los resultados, sería deseable adelantar la introducción del llamado factor de sostenibilidad al inicio de la reforma, de forma que exista un mecanismo claro para modular el ritmo y el alcance de las reformas previstas si así lo exige la situación financiera del sistema antes del final del período transitorio.

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File URL: http://www.fedea.net/documentos/pubs/ee/2011/03-2011.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Economic Reports with number 03-2011.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdacee:03-2011

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  1. Javier Alonso & Jasmina Bjeletic & Soledad Hormazabal & Carolina Romero & Carlos Herrera & Ivonne Ordonez & David Tuesta, 2009. "Proyecciones del impacto de los fondos de pensiones en la inversion en infraestructura y el crecimiento en Latinoamerica," Working Papers 0921, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  2. Rafael Domenech & Angel Melguizo, 2009. "Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain. On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency," Working Papers 0911, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  3. Javier Alonso Meseguer & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, 2007. "Reforma de las pensiones: la experiencia internacional," Working Papers 2007-18, FEDEA.
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