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The effect of immigration on the long run sustainability of the public pension system in Spain

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Author Info
Zenon Jiménez-Ridruejo Ayuso () (Universidad de Valladolid)
Carlos Borondo Arribas () (Universidad de Valladolid)
Julio López Díaz () (Universidad de Valladolid)
Carmen Lorenzo Lago () (Universidad de Valladolid)
Carmen Rodríguez Sumaza () (Universidad de Valladolid)
Abstract

In this paper we build a socio-economic simulation model, called Carrion, to project the public expenditure on the retirement pensions, the social security contributions and the GDP through 2060. The model makes use of detailed hypothesis backed with econometric estimations on the behavior of current and future immigrants related to the length of stay, fertility, wages and employment rates. This information, along with the same for the native population, allows a detailed analysis of the effect of immigration on the balance of the social security system. The main result is that the solvency ratio (contributions over pensions) of immigrants is clearly above that of natives and will be so until 2055, when both ratios will be well under current values

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Publisher Info
Article provided by IEF in its journal Hacienda Pública Española/Revista de Economía Pública.

Volume (Year): 188 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 74-121
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Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2009:v:188:1:p:74-121

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Related research
Keywords: Demographic projections; Social Security; pensions; sustainability of pension system;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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  1. David Coleman, 2006. "Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(3), pages 401-446. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rudolf Winter-Ebmer & Josef Zweimüller, 1999. "Do immigrants displace young native workers: The Austrian experience," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 327-340. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007. "A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Christian Dustmann & Francesca Fabbri & Ian Preston, 2005. "The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages F324-F341, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Raquel Carrasco & Juan F. Jimeno & Ana Carolina Ortega, 2004. "The Effect Of Immigration On The Employment Opportunities Of Native-Born Workers: Some Evidence For Spain," Economics Working Papers we046122, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
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  8. George J. Borjas, 2003. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1335-1374, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zweimuller, Josef, 1996. "Immigration and the Earnings of Young Native Workers," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 473-91, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Rojas, Juan A., 2005. "Life-cycle earnings, cohort size effects and social security: a quantitative exploration," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 465-485, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-26.

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