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Can Social Security be welfare improving when there is demographic uncertainty?

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  • Virginia Sanchez-Marcos & Alfonso Sanchez Martin

Abstract

This paper studies the welfare implications of a PAYG pension system in a neoclassical growth model with overlapping generations, demographic uncertainty and sequentially incomplete markets. In absence of public pensions, small cohorts tend to be favored by the changes in relative prices implied by demographic shocks. As described in Bohn (1999), PAYG Define Benefit systems can help to share the financial risks created by demographic uncertainty across the generations. The overall welfare impact depends on the balance between this insurance effect and the well known crowding-out effect stemming from the unfunded character of the system. Therefore, the question about the total welfare impact of PAYG pensions is intrinsically quantitative. In this paper we use a four-periods OLG model calibrated to the US economy to provide a first quantitative assessment of the relative size of the different effects involved.The findings are unfavorable for PAYG pension systems: the size of the crowding-out effect is large enough to offset the benefits from risk sharing, making the introduction of public pensions a welfare decreasing process (even in ex-ante terms). In particular, with a marginal PAYG pension scheme (providing a 2\% replacement rate of the average wage) small cohorts lose the equivalent to a 1.9% of their consumption in the age interval 20/40, while larger cohorts loss is 1.5%.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 163.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:163

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Keywords: social security; demographic uncertainty; general equilibrium; life-cycle model;

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  1. Andrew Abel & Gregory N. Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard Zeckhauser, . "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  3. Luisa Fuster, 1999. "Is Altruism Important for Understanding the Long-Run Effects of Social Security?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 616-637, July.
  4. Michele Boldrin & Mariacristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005. "Fertility and Social Security," NBER Working Papers 11146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2003. "Pareto Improving Social Security Reform when Financial Markets are Incomplete?," NBER Working Papers 9410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Krueger, Dirk & Kubler, Felix, 2004. "Computing equilibrium in OLG models with stochastic production," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1411-1436, April.
  8. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will bequests attenuate the predicted meltdown in stock prices when baby boomers retire?," Working Papers 01-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  10. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., . "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," GSIA Working Papers 1997-37, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  11. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
  12. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
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  15. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
  16. Miles, David K & Sefton, James, 2002. "Optimal Social Security Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3290, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. HUANG, HE & IMROHOROG[caron]LU, SELAHATTIN & SARGENT, THOMAS J., 1997. "Two Computations To Fund Social Security," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 7-44, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Ludwig, Alexander & Reiter, Michael, 2008. "Sharing Demographic Risk - Who is Afraid of the Baby Bust?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-47, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  2. Clara I. Gonzalez & José Ignacio Conde Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2009. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2009-26, FEDEA.
  3. Willem Heeringa, 2008. "Optimal life cycle investment with pay-as-you-go pension schemes: a portfolio approach," DNB Working Papers 168, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  4. Shin, Inyong, 2012. "The Effect of Pension on the Optimized Life Expectancy and Lifetime Utility Level," MPRA Paper 41375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Miyazato, Naomi, 2010. "The optimal size of Japan's public pensions: An analysis considering the risks of longevity and volatility of return on assets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 31-39, January.
  6. Hans Fehr, 2009. "Computable Stochastic Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Pension- and Ageing Research," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(4), pages 359-416, December.

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