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Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade? Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Soloaga, Isidro
Winters, L. Alan
The paper applies a gravity model to 1980-1996 annual non-fuel imports data for 58 countries to quantify the effects of recently created or revamped PTAs on trade. We modify the usual gravity equation to identify separate effects of PTAs on intra-bloc trade, members' total imports and their total exports. We also innovate by formally testing the significance of changes in the estimated coefficients before and after blocs' formation. Our estimations show no indication that the 'new wave' of regionalism boosted intra-bloc trade significantly. Regarding trade diversion, we found convincing evidence of it only for EU and EFTA (and for the same blocs also, we observed exports diversion, which would be consistent with their imposing a welfare cost on the ROW). Trade liberalization efforts in Latin America had a positive impact on bloc members' imports (ANDEAN, CACM, LAIA and MERCOSUR), although MERCOSUR's exports decreased in the last part of the sample.
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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number
2183.
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Date of creation: Jun 1999Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2183Contact details of provider: Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 53--56 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DG Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801 Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
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Keywords: European Integration ; Gravity Model ; Regional Integration ; Trade Diversion ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
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