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Proliferating Regional Trade Arrangements: Why and Whither?

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  • Jong-Wha Lee
  • Innwon Park
  • Kwanho Shin

Abstract

This paper investigates why regional trade arrangements (RTAs) are proliferating extensively and how the effects of multiple RTAs, by interacting with each other, evolve over time. Our empirical analysis, based on an extended gravity model utilising a large panel dataset of 175 countries from 1948 to 1999, shows that RTAs on average increase global trade by raising intra-bloc trade without damaging extra-bloc trade. The net trade effects, however, heavily depend on the types of RTA strategic evolution over time, which we categorise as 'expansionary' RTAs, 'duplicate' RTAs or 'overlapping' RTAs. We find that countries excluded from an RTA can benefit more from duplicating a separate RTA than from joining an existing RTA. This result explains why the number of bilateral trade blocs, rather than the membership size of existing RTAs, is currently exploding. We also find that the net trade-creating effects of RTAs are substantially lower for countries participating in overlapping RTAs. This result suggests that it is less likely that the currently proliferating RTAs will completely merge and lead the world economy to global free trade. Our empirical results are robust to controlling for the characteristics of countries that may influence the impact of RTAs. Copyright 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal World Economy.

Volume (Year): 31 (2008)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
Pages: 1525-1557

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:12:p:1525-1557

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cipollina, Maria & Salvatici, Luca, 2006. "Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-analysis," Working Papers 18877, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  2. Innwon Park & Soonchan Park, 2009. "Free Trade Agreements versus Customs Unions: An Examination of East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 8(2), pages 119-139, June.
  3. Innwon Park, 2009. "Regional Trade Agreements in East Asia: Will They Be Sustainable? ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 169-194, 06.
  4. Lee, Jong-Wha & Shin, Kwanho, 2005. "Does Regionalism Lead to More Global Trade Integration in East Asia?," MPRA Paper 706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Salvador Gil-Pareja, 2011. "Do nonreciprocal preference regimes increase exports?," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1561, European Regional Science Association.
  6. Amita Batra, 2006. "Asian Economic Integration ASEAN+3+1 or ASEAN+1s?," Trade Working Papers 22143, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  7. Salvatore, Dominick, 2009. "The challenges to the liberal trading system," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 593-599, July.
  8. Hur, Jung & Alba, Joseph D. & Park, Donghyun, 2010. "Effects of Hub-and-Spoke Free Trade Agreements on Trade: A Panel Data Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1105-1113, August.
  9. Innwon Park, 2006. "East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 547-568, December.
  10. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
  11. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2008. "Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 733-755, May.
  12. Richard Pomfret, 2009. "Regionalism in the Asia-Pacific Region: How Wide, How Deep?," School of Economics Working Papers 2009-31, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.

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