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Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration

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Author Info
I-Hui Cheng
Howard J. Wall

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Abstract

This paper compares various specifications of the gravity model of trade as nested versions of a general specification that uses bilateral country-pair fixed effects to control for heterogeneity. For each specification, we show that the a theoretical restrictions to obtain them from the general model are not supported statistically. Because the gravity model has become the ‘workhorse’ baseline model for estimating the effects of international integration, this has important empirical implications. In particular, we show that, unless heterogeneity is accounted for correctly, gravity models can greatly overestimate the effects of integration on the volume of trade.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1999-010.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Publication status: Published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2005, 87(1), pp. 49-64
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1999-010

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Keywords: International trade;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Wall, Howard-J, 2002. "Has Japan Been Left Out in the Cold by Regional Integration?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(2), pages 117-34, April. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Cletus Coughlin & Howard Wall, 2003. "NAFTA and the changing pattern of state exports," Papers in Regional Science, Springer, vol. 82(4), pages 427-450, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Open versus Closed Trade Blocs," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 119-140 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Ernesto Stein & Shang-Jin Wei, 1993. "Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural, or Super-Natural?," NBER Working Papers 4588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Smith, Pamela J., 1999. "Are weak patent rights a barrier to U.S. exports?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 151-177, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Howard J. Wall, 2000. "Gravity model specification and the effects of the Canada-U.S. border," Working Papers 2000-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 141-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1998. "Regionalization of World Trade and Currencies: Economics and Politics," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 189-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  15. Bikker, Jacob A, 1987. "An International Trade Flow Model with Substitution: An Extension of the Gravity Model," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 315-37.
  16. Howard J. Wall, 2003. "NAFTA and the geography of North American trade," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 13-26. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Oguledo, Victor Iwuagwu & MacPhee, Craig R, 1994. "Gravity Models: A Reformulation and an Application to Discriminatory Trade Arrangements," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 107-20, February.
  18. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Do National Borders Matter for Quebec's Trade?," NBER Working Papers 5215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Cletus Coughlin & Howard Wall, 2003. "NAFTA and the changing pattern of state exports," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 82(4), pages 427-450, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46. [Downloadable!]
  21. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Do National Borders Matter for Quebec's Trade?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 507-22, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Sanso, Marcos & Cuairan, Rogelio & Sanz, Fernando, 1993. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Gravity Equation, and Functional Form," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 266-75, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. repec:kap:jeczfn:v:82:y:2003:i:4:p:427-450 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Howard J. Wall, 1999. "Using the gravity model to estimate the costs of protection," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 33-40. [Downloadable!]
  25. Peter Egger, . "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," WIFO Working Papers 141, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Brada, Josef C & Mendez, Jose A, 1983. "Regional Economic Integration and the Volume of Intra-Regional Trade: A Comparison of Developed and Developing Country Experience," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(4), pages 589-603.
  27. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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