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NAFTA and the geography of North American trade

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Author Info
Howard J. Wall

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Abstract

Debates over the desirability of a preferential trading area frequently begin with the supposition that it will have two effects on the volume of trade: It will increase trade between members of the trading area and decrease trade between members and nonmembers. This paper demonstrates, however, that at the regional level the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) might have been much more complicated than what is normally supposed. Specifically, according to gravity model estimates, NAFTA has meant (i) less trade between Eastern Canada and the United States and Mexico, (ii) more trade between Central Canada and the United States and Mexico, and (iii) more trade between Western Canada and Mexico but no change in the volume of trade between Western Canada and the United States. The model also indicates that NAFTA has decreased trade between Canadian regions and both Europe and Asia, while increasing Mexico’s trade with Asia.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
Pages: 13-26
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2003:i:mar:p:13-26:n:v.85no.2

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Related research
Keywords: North American Free Trade Agreement;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Wylie, Peter J., 1995. "Partial equilibrium estimates of manufacturing trade creation and diversion due to NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-84. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cletus Coughlin & Howard Wall, 2003. "NAFTA and the changing pattern of state exports," Papers in Regional Science, Springer, vol. 82(4), pages 427-450, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 141-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 7429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Do National Borders Matter for Quebec's Trade?," NBER Working Papers 5215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Cletus Coughlin & Howard Wall, 2003. "NAFTA and the changing pattern of state exports," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 82(4), pages 427-450, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46. [Downloadable!]
  9. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Do National Borders Matter for Quebec's Trade?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 507-22, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. David M. Gould, 1998. "Has NAFTA changed North American trade?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 12-23. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Working Papers 1999-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. repec:kap:jeczfn:v:82:y:2003:i:4:p:427-450 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Krugman, Paul, 1998. "What's New about the New Economic Geography?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 7-17, Summer.
  15. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, December.
  16. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Hanson, Gordon H., 1996. "Economic integration, intraindustry trade, and frontier regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 941-949, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mark Funk & Erick Elder & Vincent W. Yao & Ashvin Vibhakar, 2006. "Intra-NAFTA trade and surface traffic: a very disaggregated view," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 87-99. [Downloadable!]
  2. John Romalis, 2005. "NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 11059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lucian Cernat, 2001. "ASSESSING REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS: ARE SOUTH–SOUTH RTAs MORE TRADE DIVERTING?," International Trade 0109001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yeboah, Osei-Agyeman & Malik, Mostafa & Thompson, Henry, 2004. "Ftaa And North Carolina: Income Redistribution Across Labor Groups," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20380, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  5. Martin Andresen, 2009. "The geographical effects of the NAFTA on Canadian provinces," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 251-265, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Howard J. Wall, 2002. "Has Japan been left out in the cold by regional integration?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 25-36. [Downloadable!]
  7. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A survey of the assessments of the effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using gravity models," Working Papers 7282, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Working Papers 1999-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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