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AFTA and the Asian Crisis: Help or Hindrance to ASEAN Intra-Regional Trade?

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  • Robert J. R. Elliott
  • Kengo Ikemoto

Abstract

Using a modified gravity equation, this paper examines ASEAN intra- and extra-regional bias in bilateral trade flows and how these relationships have altered over time. We pay particular attention to the periods before and after the signing of AFTA as well as the crucial years prior to and following the Asian crisis. Given the 'openness' of ASEAN countries we consider not only intra-ASEAN trade but also the effect of AFTA on non-members. We find that trade flows were not significantly affected in the years immediately following the signing of the AFTA agreement and also that the traditional stance of ASEAN countries to outward-oriented economic activity has not been significantly damaged but rather stimulated by the AFTA process and/or the Asian economic crisis. We do find, however, that that one effect of the Asian economic crisis was to generate a stronger desire to source imports from within the region. Copyright 2004 East Asian Economic Association..

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by East Asian Economic Association in its journal Asian Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 18 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 1-23

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Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:18:y:2004:i:1:p:1-23

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Cited by:
  1. Kubo, Koji, 2013. "Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis," IDE Discussion Papers 426, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  2. Manchin, Miriam & Pelkmans-Balaoing, Annette O., 2008. "Clothes without an Emperor: Analysis of the preferential tariffs in ASEAN," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 213-223, June.
  3. Souleymane COULIBALY, 2006. "Evaluating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Developing RTAs," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 06.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  4. Evelyn S. Devadason, 2013. "Whither Sub-Regional Cooperation? The CLMV Perspective," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 5(2), pages 1-36, July.
  5. Sithanonxay SUVANNAPHAKDY & Toshihisa TOYODA & Chris CZERKAWSKI, 2011. "Enhancing Trade Flows in ASEAN Plus Six," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(2).
  6. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Sanidas, Elias, 2005. "The Impact of Unilateral and Regional Trade Liberalisation on the Intra-ASEAN 5 Founding Nations' Exports and Export-GDP Nexus," Economics Working Papers wp05-14, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  7. Indira M. Hapsari & Carlos Mangunsong, 2006. "Determinants of AFTA Members’ Trade Flows and Potential for Trade Diversion," Working Papers 2106, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
  8. Trotignon, Jérôme, 2010. "Does Regional Integration Promote the Multilateralization of Trade Flows?: a Gravity Model Using Panel Data," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 223-251.
  9. Nguyen Trung Kien & Yoshizo Hashimoto, 2005. "Economic Analysis Of Asean Free Trade Area; By A Country Panel Data," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 05-12, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  10. Zaenal Mutaqin & Masaru Ichihashi, 2013. "Widening and Deepening Economic Integration Impact on Bilateral Trade in the Eurozone and ASEAN," IDEC DP2 Series 3-3, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
  11. Jugurnath, Bhavish & Stewart, Mark & Brooks, Robert, 2007. "Asia/Pacific Regional Trade Agreements: An empirical study," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 974-987, December.
  12. Mohd Rosli, 2013. "Book Review: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Access to Finance in Selected East Asian Economies, by Charlies Harvie, Sothea Oum and Dionisius A. Narjoko, (eds), ERIA Research Project Report 2010-1," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 5(2), pages 159-160, July.
  13. Coulibaly, Souleymane, 2007. "Evaluating the trade effect of developing regional trade agreements : a semi-parametric approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4220, The World Bank.
  14. Suvannaphakdy, Sithanonxay & Tang, Hsiao Chink & DiCaprio, Alisa, 2014. "Enlargement of Economic Framework in Southeast Asia and Trade Flows in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 126, Asian Development Bank.
  15. Jane Korinek & Mark Melatos, 2009. "Trade Impacts of Selected Regional Trade Agreements in Agriculture," OECD Trade Policy Papers 87, OECD Publishing.
  16. Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Are Optimal Currency Areas Optimal for All? A Reassessment of the Case for Asian Monetary Union," International Finance 0508003, EconWPA.
  17. Sithanonxay Suvannaphakdy & Chris Czerkawaski & Toshihisa Toyoda, 2013. "Potential Impacts Of Regional Trade Enlargement In East Asia On Laos' Trade," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 85-110, September.
  18. Jérôme Trotignon, 2009. "L'intégration régionale favorise-t-elle la multilatéralisation des échanges ?," Post-Print halshs-00335633, HAL.

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