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AFTA and the Asian Crisis: Help or Hindrance to ASEAN Intra-Regional Trade?

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  • Robert J. R. Elliott
  • Kengo Ikemoto

Abstract

Using a modified gravity equation, this paper examines ASEAN intra- and extra-regional bias in bilateral trade flows and how these relationships have altered over time. We pay particular attention to the periods before and after the signing of AFTA as well as the crucial years prior to and following the Asian crisis. Given the 'openness' of ASEAN countries we consider not only intra-ASEAN trade but also the effect of AFTA on non-members. We find that trade flows were not significantly affected in the years immediately following the signing of the AFTA agreement and also that the traditional stance of ASEAN countries to outward-oriented economic activity has not been significantly damaged but rather stimulated by the AFTA process and/or the Asian economic crisis. We do find, however, that that one effect of the Asian economic crisis was to generate a stronger desire to source imports from within the region. Copyright 2004 East Asian Economic Association..

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by East Asian Economic Association in its journal Asian Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 18 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 1-23

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Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:18:y:2004:i:1:p:1-23

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Cited by:
  1. Coulibaly, Souleymane, 2007. "Evaluating the trade effect of developing regional trade agreements : a semi-parametric approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4220, The World Bank.
  2. Souleymane COULIBALY, 2006. "Evaluating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Developing RTAs," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 06.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  3. Kubo, Koji, 2013. "Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis," IDE Discussion Papers 426, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  4. Florian Mölders & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 429-456, September.
  5. Nguyen Trung Kien & Yoshizo Hashimoto, 2005. "Economic Analysis Of Asean Free Trade Area; By A Country Panel Data," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 05-12, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:282-291 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Are Optimal Currency Areas Optimal for All? A Reassessment of the Case for Asian Monetary Union," International Finance 0508003, EconWPA.
  8. Faruk Aydin & Hulya Saygili & Mesut Saygili & Gokhan Yilmaz, 2010. "Dis Ticarette Kuresel Egilimler ve Turkiye Ekonomisi," Working Papers 1001, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  9. Indira M. Hapsari & Carlos Mangunsong, 2006. "Determinants of AFTA Members’ Trade Flows and Potential for Trade Diversion," Working Papers 2106, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
  10. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Sanidas, Elias, 2005. "The Impact of Unilateral and Regional Trade Liberalisation on the Intra-ASEAN 5 Founding Nations' Exports and Export-GDP Nexus," Economics Working Papers wp05-14, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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