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Using the gravity model to estimate the costs of protection

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Author Info
Howard J. Wall

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Abstract

Many economists expend a lot of energy decrying trade protectionism; nonetheless, their estimates of the actual burden that protectionism imposes on the economy have been surprisingly small. In this article, Howard J. Wall presents a method that captures some of the effects and distortions of trade protection which have not been captured by existing methods. Wall finds that during 1996, worldwide protectionism reduced U.S. exports by 26.2 percent. Likewise, U.S. protectionism decreased U.S. imports from non-NAFTA countries by 15.4 percent. He calculates further that the welfare cost of U.S. protectionism amounted to about 1.45 percent of U.S. national income, which is much higher than previous estimates.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): Jan ()
Pages: 33-40
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1999:i:jan:p:33-40:n:1

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Related research
Keywords: Free trade ; International trade ; Import quotas ; Export controls;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Baldwin, Robert E., 1984. "Trade policies in developed countries," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 571-619 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 141-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Robert W. Staiger & Frank A. Wolak, 1994. "Measuring Industry Specific Protection: Antidumping in the United States," NBER Working Papers 4696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Feenstra, Robert C, 1992. "How Costly Is Protectionism?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 159-78, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. José Vicente Blanes Cristóbal & Juliette Milgram Baleix, 2006. "Impacto de la liberalización comercial de Marruecos y de la inmigración marroquí sobre las exportaciones de las CCAA españolas hacia Marruecos," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2006/14, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nouve, Kofi & Staatz, John, 2003. "Has Agoa Increased Agricultural Exports From Sub-Saharan Africa To The United States?," Staff Papers 11573, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Craig A. Depken, 2004. "Market structure and ad valorem taxes: cross-country evidence from the magazine industry," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(8), pages 477-481, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bouët, Antoine, 2006. "What can the poor expect from trade liberalization?: opening the "black box" of trade modeling," MTID discussion papers 93, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  5. Nouve, Kofi & Staatz, John, 2003. "The African Growth And Opportunity Act And The Latent Agricultural Export Response In Sub-Saharan Africa," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21917, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  6. José V. Blanes & Juliette Milgram Baleix, 2006. "The Free Trade Agreement Morocco-EU: a simulation of the impact on EU exports," ThE Papers 06/09, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada.. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Ana Maria Sova, 2007. "The Role of Association Agreements within European Union Enlargement to Central and Eastern European Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 2769, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  8. Bouet, Antoine, 2008. "The expected benefits of trade liberalization for world income and development: Opening the “black box” of global trade modeling," Food policy reviews 8, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  9. Philipp Maier, 2008. "A Wave of Protectionism? An Analysis of Economic and Political Considerations," Working Papers 08-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Uttam Kumar Deb, 2006. "Rules of Origin and Non-Tariff Barriers in Agricultural Trade: Perspectives from Bangladesh and Cambodia," Working Papers 1206, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada.. [Downloadable!]
  11. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Working Papers 1999-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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