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NAFTA and the geography of North American trade

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  • Howard J. Wall

Abstract

Debates over the desirability a preferential trading area (PTA) begin with the supposition that it will have two effects on trade: it will increase trade between PTA members, and decrease trade between members and non-members. This paper demonstrates, however, that at the regional level the effects of NAFTA have been much more complicated than what is normally supposed. Specifically, I find that NAFTA has meant (i) less trade between Eastern Canada and the United States and Mexico, (ii) more trade between Central Canada and the United States and Mexico, and (iii) more trade between Western Canada and Mexico, but no change in the volume of trade between Western Canada and the United States. I also find that NAFTA has decreased trade between Canadian regions and both Europe and Asia, while increasing Mexico's trade with Asia.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2000-017.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Publication status: Published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March 01, 2003, 85 (2), pp. 13-26
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2000-017

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Keywords: North American Free Trade Agreement;

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References

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  1. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, December.
  2. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1995. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," IMF Working Papers 95/109, International Monetary Fund.
  3. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Do National Borders Matter for Quebec's Trade?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 507-22, August.
  4. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
  5. Karemera, David & Ojah, Kalu, 1998. "An Industrial Analysis of Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of NAFTA," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 400-425.
  6. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
  7. Wylie, Peter J., 1995. "Partial equilibrium estimates of manufacturing trade creation and diversion due to NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-84.
  8. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June.
  9. Krugman, Paul, 1998. "What's New about the New Economic Geography?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 7-17, Summer.
  10. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  11. David M. Gould, 1998. "Has NAFTA changed North American trade?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 12-23.
  12. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46.
  13. Devadoss, Stephen & Kropf, Jurgen & Wahl, Thomas I., 1995. "Trade Creation And Diversion Effects Of The North American Free Trade Agreement Of U.S. Sugar Imports From Mexico," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(02), December.
  14. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
  15. Cletus Coughlin & Howard Wall, 2003. "NAFTA and the changing pattern of state exports," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 82(4), pages 427-450, November.
  16. Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517 Elsevier.
  17. Hanson, Gordon H., 1996. "Economic integration, intraindustry trade, and frontier regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 941-949, April.
  18. repec:kap:jeczfn:v:82:y:2003:i:4:p:427-450 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 7429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Howard J. Wall, 2002. "Has Japan been left out in the cold by regional integration?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 25-36.
  2. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A survey of the assessments of the effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using gravity models," Working Papers 7282, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  3. Yeboah, Osei-Agyeman & Malik, Mostafa & Thompson, Henry, 2004. "Ftaa And North Carolina: Income Redistribution Across Labor Groups," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20380, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. John Romalis, 2007. "NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 416-435, August.
  5. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
  6. Mark Funk & Erick Elder & Vincent W. Yao & Ashvin Vibhakar, 2006. "Intra-NAFTA trade and surface traffic: a very disaggregated view," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 87-99.
  7. Lucian Cernat, 2001. "ASSESSING REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS: ARE SOUTH–SOUTH RTAs MORE TRADE DIVERTING?," International Trade 0109001, EconWPA.
  8. Martin Andresen, 2009. "The geographical effects of the NAFTA on Canadian provinces," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 251-265, March.

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