IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/17398.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Causal Effects of Education on Age at Marriage and Marital Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Cummins, Neil

Abstract

The negative association of education and fertility, over time and between countries, is a central stylized fact of social science. Yet we have scant evidence on whether this is, or is not, causal. Using the universe of vital registration index data from England, 1912 to 2007, I first show that it is possible, using unique names, to construct a demographically and socioeconomically representative sample of 1.5 million women. Historical record linkage of women is typically not attempted but is possible here because of the unique characteristics of English civil registration. I then exploit the natural experiment of sharp discontinuities in who was affected by compulsory schooling law changes in 1947 and in 1972, which exogenously and effectively raised the minimum school leaving age. A Regression Discontinuity design, executed on the individual data, identifies the causal effect of education on age at marriage and fertility. Education may have raised age at marriage in 1972. However one extra year of education at 15 or 16 has a zero causal effect on marital fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Cummins, Neil, 2022. "The Causal Effects of Education on Age at Marriage and Marital Fertility," CEPR Discussion Papers 17398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17398
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP17398
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Osili, Una Okonkwo & Long, Bridget Terry, 2008. "Does female schooling reduce fertility? Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 57-75, August.
    2. Bhashkar Mazumder, 2008. "Does education improve health? A reexamination of the evidence from compulsory schooling laws," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 32(Q II), pages 2-16.
    3. Matt Dickson & Paul Gregg & Harriet Robinson, 2016. "Early, Late or Never? When Does Parental Education Impact Child Outcomes?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(596), pages 184-231, October.
    4. Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Till von Wachter, 2008. "Zero Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Germany: Evidence and Interpretation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 592-598, August.
    5. Ran Abramitzky & Leah Platt Boustan & Katherine Eriksson, 2012. "Europe's Tired, Poor, Huddled Masses: Self-Selection and Economic Outcomes in the Age of Mass Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 1832-1856, August.
    6. Esther Duflo & Pascaline Dupas & Michael Kremer, 2015. "Education, HIV, and Early Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Kenya," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2757-2797, September.
    7. Justin McCrary & Heather Royer, 2011. "The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 158-195, February.
    8. Philip Oreopoulos, 2006. "Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education when Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 152-175, March.
    9. Basu, Alaka Malwade, 2002. "Why does Education Lead to Lower Fertility? A Critical Review of Some of the Possibilities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 1779-1790, October.
    10. Lee, Jong-Wha & Lee, Hanol, 2016. "Human capital in the long run," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 147-169.
    11. Arendt, Jacob Nielsen, 2005. "Does education cause better health? A panel data analysis using school reforms for identification," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 149-160, April.
    12. Julien Grenet, 2013. "Is Extending Compulsory Schooling Alone Enough to Raise Earnings? Evidence from French and British Compulsory Schooling Laws," Post-Print halshs-00754526, HAL.
    13. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    14. Samir K.C. & Bilal Barakat & Anne Goujon & Vegard Skirbekk & Warren C. Sanderson & Wolfgang Lutz, 2010. "Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(15), pages 383-472.
    15. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1091-1113, September.
    16. Lindeboom, Maarten & Llena-Nozal, Ana & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2009. "Parental education and child health: Evidence from a schooling reform," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 109-131, January.
    17. SandraE. Black & PaulJ. Devereux & KjellG. Salvanes, 2008. "Staying in the Classroom and out of the maternity ward? The effect of compulsory schooling laws on teenage births," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1025-1054, July.
    18. Paul J. Devereux & Robert A. Hart, 2010. "Forced to be Rich? Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1345-1364, December.
    19. Jason Long & Joseph Ferrie, 2013. "Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Great Britain and the United States since 1850," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1109-1137, June.
    20. Melvin Stephens Jr. & Dou-Yan Yang, 2014. "Compulsory Education and the Benefits of Schooling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1777-1792, June.
    21. Matt Dickson, 2013. "The Causal Effect of Education on Wages Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(4), pages 477-498, August.
    22. Buscha, Franz & Dickson, Matt, 2012. "The raising of the school leaving age: Returns in later life," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 389-393.
    23. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2015. "Intergenerational Wealth Mobility in England, 1858–2012: Surnames and Social Mobility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(582), pages 61-85, February.
    24. Margherita Fort & Nicole Schneeweis & Rudolf Winter‐Ebmer, 2016. "Is Education Always Reducing Fertility? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(595), pages 1823-1855, September.
    25. Silles, Mary A., 2009. "The causal effect of education on health: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 122-128, February.
    26. Lee, David S. & Card, David, 2008. "Regression discontinuity inference with specification error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 655-674, February.
    27. Vegard Skirbekk, 2008. "Fertility trends by social status," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(5), pages 145-180.
    28. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Keueger, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014.
    29. Harmon, Colm & Walker, Ian, 1995. "Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling for the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1278-1286, December.
    30. Moshe Hazan & Hosny Zoabi, 2015. "Do Highly Educated Women Choose Smaller Families?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(587), pages 1191-1226, September.
    31. Dolton, Peter & Sandi, Matteo, 2017. "Returning to returns: revisiting the British education evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85152, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    32. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    33. Neil Cummins, 2013. "Marital fertility and wealth during the fertility transition: rural F rance, 1750–1850," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(2), pages 449-476, May.
    34. Damon Clark & Heather Royer, 2013. "The Effect of Education on Adult Mortality and Health: Evidence from Britain," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2087-2120, October.
    35. Matt Dickson & Paul Gregg & Harriet Robinson, 2016. "Early, Late or Never? When Does Parental Education Impact Child Outcomes?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(596), pages 184-231.
    36. Black, Dan A. & Hsu, Yu-Chieh & Taylor, Lowell J., 2015. "The effect of early-life education on later-life mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-9.
    37. Judith M. Delaney & Paul J. Devereux, 2019. "More Education, Less Volatility? The Effect of Education on Earnings Volatility over the Life Cycle," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 101-137.
    38. Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2005. "The Relationship Between Education and Adult Mortality in the United States," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 189-221.
    39. Jason Long & Joseph Ferrie, 2013. "Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Great Britain and the United States since 1850: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 2041-2049, August.
    40. Albouy, Valerie & Lequien, Laurent, 2009. "Does compulsory education lower mortality?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 155-168, January.
    41. Keats, Anthony, 2018. "Women's schooling, fertility, and child health outcomes: Evidence from Uganda's free primary education program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 142-159.
    42. Julien Grenet, 2013. "Is Extending Compulsory Schooling Alone Enough to Raise Earnings? Evidence from French and British Compulsory Schooling Laws," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(1), pages 176-210, January.
    43. Dolton, Peter & Sandi, Matteo, 2017. "Returning to returns: Revisiting the British education evidence," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 87-104.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Markus Gehrsitz & Morgan C. Williams, "undated". "The Effects of Compulsory Schooling on Health and Hospitalization over the Life Cycle," Working Papers 2303, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics, revised May 2020.
    2. Tony Beatton & Michael P. Kidd & Matteo Sandi, 2020. "School indiscipline and crime," CEP Discussion Papers dp1727, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Dolton, Peter & Sandi, Matteo, 2017. "Returning to returns: Revisiting the British education evidence," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 87-104.
    4. Sakai Yoko & Masuda Kazuya, 2020. "Secondary education and international labor mobility: evidence from the natural experiment in the Philippines," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, January.
    5. de New, Sonja C. & Schurer, Stefanie & Sulzmaier, Dominique, 2021. "Gender differences in the lifecycle benefits of compulsory schooling policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Albarrán, Pedro & Hidalgo-Hidalgo, Marisa & Iturbe-Ormaetxe, Iñigo, 2020. "Education and adult health: Is there a causal effect?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    7. Dolton, Peter & Sandi, Matteo, 2017. "Returning to returns: revisiting the British education evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85152, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Timo Hener & Tanya Wilson, 2018. "Marital Age Gaps and Educational Homogamy – Evidence from a Compulsory Schooling Reform in the UK," ifo Working Paper Series 256, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    9. Meyer, Andrew G., 2017. "The impact of education on political ideology: Evidence from European compulsory education reforms," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 9-23.
    10. Ciprian Domnisoru, 2021. "Heterogeneity across Families in the Impact of Compulsory Schooling Laws," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 399-429, April.
    11. DeCicca, Philip & Krashinsky, Harry, 2020. "Does education reduce teen fertility? Evidence from compulsory schooling laws," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. Dursun, Bahadır & Cesur, Resul & Mocan, Naci, 2018. "The Impact of Education on Health Outcomes and Behaviors in a Middle-Income, Low-Education Country," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 94-114.
    13. Paul J. Devereux & Robert A. Hart, 2010. "Forced to be Rich? Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1345-1364, December.
    14. Bahadır Dursun & Resul Cesur, 2016. "Transforming lives: the impact of compulsory schooling on hope and happiness," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 911-956, July.
    15. Fischer, Martin & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Schwarz, Nina, 2016. "The Sooner the Better? Compulsory Schooling Reforms in Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 10430, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Lepinteur, Anthony & Nieto, Adrìan, 2021. "All about the money ? The gendered effect of education on industrial and occupational sorting," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2109, CEPREMAP.
    17. Judith M. Delaney & Paul J. Devereux, 2019. "More Education, Less Volatility? The Effect of Education on Earnings Volatility over the Life Cycle," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 101-137.
    18. Michael Geruso & Heather Royer, 2018. "The Impact of Education on Family Formation: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the UK," NBER Working Papers 24332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Cygan-Rehm, Kamila, 2018. "Is additional schooling worthless? Revising the zero returns to compulsory schooling in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181528, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Gregory Clark & Christian Alexander Abildgaard Nielsen, 2024. "The Returns to Education: A Meta-study," Working Papers 0249, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Education; Causal effects; Demography; Economic history; Labor economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17398. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.