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Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050

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Author Info

  • Samir KC

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Bilal Barakat

    (Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences)

  • Anne Goujon

    (Vienna Institute of Demography)

  • Vegard Skirbekk

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Warren C. Sanderson

    (State University of New York, Stony Brook)

  • Wolfgang Lutz

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

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    Abstract

    Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals.

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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol22/15/22-15.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

    Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 15 (March)
    Pages: 383-472

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    Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:22:y:2010:i:15

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

    Related research

    Keywords: differential fertility; differential of mortality; education; education goals; education policies; education scenarios; educational attainment; human capital; multi-state methods; projections;

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    References

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    1. Birdsall, Nancy M. & Griffin, Charles C., 1988. "Fertility and poverty in developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 29-55, April.
    2. Elo, Irma T. & Preston, Samuel H., 1996. "Educational differentials in mortality: United States, 1979-1985," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 47-57, January.
    3. Cleland, John G. & van Ginneken, Jerome K., 1988. "Maternal education and child survival in developing countries: The search for pathways of influence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 27(12), pages 1357-1368, January.
    4. Ahuja, Vinod & Filmer, Deon, 1995. "Educational attainments in developing countries : new estimates and projections disaggregated by gender," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1489, The World Bank.
    5. Angrist, Joshua & Lavy, Victor & Schlosser, Analia, 2006. "New Evidence on the Causal Link between the Quantity and Quality of Children," IZA Discussion Papers 2075, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Development and Comp Systems 0409007, EconWPA.
    7. Bloemen, Hans & Kalwij, Adriaan S., 2001. "Female labor market transitions and the timing of births: a simultaneous analysis of the effects of schooling," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 593-620, December.
    8. Harriet Duleep, 1989. "Measuring socioeconomic mortality differentials over time," Demography, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 345-351, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Havettová, Miroslava & Lábaj, Martin, 2013. "Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 493-507.
    2. Guy J. Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546, March.
    3. Sánchez-Romero, Miguel & Sambt, Jože & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2013. "Quantifying the role of alternative pension reforms on the Austrian economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 94-114.
    4. Katharina Herlofson & Gunhild Hagestad, 2011. "Challenges in moving from macro to micro: Population and family structures in ageing societies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(10), pages 337-370, August.
    5. Erich Striessnig & Wolfgang Lutz, 2014. "How does education change the relationship between fertility and age-dependency under environmental constraints? A long-term simulation exercise," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(16), pages 465-492, February.
    6. Fanny A. Kluge & Emilio Zagheni & Elke Loichinger & Tobias Vogt, 2014. "The advantages of demographic change after the wave: fewer and older, but healthier, greener, and more productive?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2014-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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