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Forced to be Rich? Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Britain

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Author Info
Devereux, Paul J.
Hart, Robert A.

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Abstract

Researchers using changes in compulsory schooling laws as instruments have typically estimated very high returns to additional schooling that are greater than the corresponding OLS estimates. Given that the first order source of bias in OLS is likely to be upward as more able individuals tend to obtain more education, such high estimates are usually rationalized as reflecting the fact that the group of individuals who are influenced by the law change have particularly high returns to education. That is, the Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) is larger than the average treatment effect (ATE). However, studies of a 1947 British compulsory schooling law change that impacted about half the relevant population (so the LATE approximates the ATE) have also found very high IV returns to schooling (about 15%), suggesting that the ATE of schooling is greater than OLS estimates would suggest. This constitutes a puzzle: How can the OLS return to schooling be a significantly downward biased estimate of the ATE when the primary source of OLS bias should be upward? We utilize a source of earnings data, the New Earnings Survey Panel Data-set (NESPD), that is superior to the datasets previously used and conclude that there is no such puzzle: the IV estimates are small and much lower than OLS. In fact, there is no evidence of any return for women and the return for men is in the 4-7% range. We do, however, find that men benefit from greater schooling through a reduction in earnings variability.

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Paper provided by University of Stirling, Department of Economics in its series Stirling Economics Discussion Papers with number 2008-02.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:stl:stledp:2008-02

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Postal: Department of Economics, Stirling, Stirling, Scotland FK9 4LA
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Related research
Keywords: Returns to schooling; British 1947 compulsory schooling law change; Regression discontinuity design;

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  1. James Banks & Richard Blundell, 2005. "Private pension arrangements and retirement in Britain," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 35-53, March.
  2. Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Till von Wachter, 2005. "Zero Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Germany: Evidence and Interpretation," IZA Discussion Papers 1645, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Philip Oreopoulos & Marianne E. Page, 2006. "The Intergenerational Effects of Compulsory Schooling," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(4), pages 729-760, October.
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  4. Sandra E. Black & Paul J. Devereux & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2005. "Why the Apple Doesn't Fall Far: Understanding Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 437-449, March. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Angrist, Joshua D & Krueger, Alan B, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Oreopoulos, Philip, 2007. "Do dropouts drop out too soon? Wealth, health and happiness from compulsory schooling," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(11-12), pages 2213-2229, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Atsushi Inoue & Gary Solon, 2005. "Two-Sample Instrumental Variables Estimators," NBER Technical Working Papers 0311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Philip Oreopoulos, 2006. "Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education when Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 152-175, March. [Downloadable!]
  9. SandraE. Black & PaulJ. Devereux & KjellG. Salvanes, 2008. "Staying in the Classroom and out of the maternity ward? The effect of compulsory schooling laws on teenage births," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1025-1054, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Milligan, Kevin & Moretti, Enrico & Oreopoulos, Philip, 2004. "Does education improve citizenship? Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1667-1695, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Guido Imbens & Thomas Lemieux, 2007. "Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice," NBER Working Papers 13039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Card, David, 1999. "The causal effect of education on earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1801-1863 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Harmon, Colm & Walker, Ian, 1995. "Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling for the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1278-86, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Steven Haider & Gary Solon, 2006. "Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1308-1320, September. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2005. "The Relationship Between Education and Adult Mortality in the United States," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(1), pages 189-221, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Manning, Alan, 2000. "Movin' on up: Interpreting the Earnings-Experience Profile," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 261-95, October.
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  18. Maarten Lindeboom & Ana Llena-Nozal & Bas van der Klaauw, 2006. "Parental Education and Child Health: Evidence from a Schooling Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 2516, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  19. David S. Lee & David Card, 2006. "Regression Discontinuity Inference with Specification Error," NBER Technical Working Papers 0322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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