IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbt/econwp/22-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodity Futures Hedge Ratios: A Meta-Analysis

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The derivative accounting standard requires hedging to satisfy the 80-125 rule to be eligible to apply the hedge accounting treatment. This means the hedging relationship should achieve hedging effectiveness within the 80% - 125% level to qualify for hedge accounting. The appropriateness of this screening criterion is questioned in the existing literature, and there is hardly any empirical evidence to justify the suitability of this threshold level of hedge effectiveness. By applying meta-analysis methodology for 1699 hedge ratios collected from previous academic studies in commodity futures hedging, we show that the average optimal hedge ratio in commodity futures hedging in the academic literature mostly overlaps with the 80-125 threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Jędrzej Białkowski & Martin T. Bohl & Devmali Perera, 2022. "Commodity Futures Hedge Ratios: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 22/12, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:22/12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.canterbury.ac.nz/cbt/econwp/2212.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Jun & King, Tao-Hsien Dolly, 2014. "Corporate hedging and the cost of debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 221-245.
    2. Dahlgran, Roger A., 2009. "Inventory and Transformation Hedging Effectiveness in Corn Crushing," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Moschini, GianCarlo & Myers, Robert J., 2002. "Testing for constant hedge ratios in commodity markets: a multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 589-603, December.
    4. Sergio H. Lence, 1995. "The Economic Value of Minimum-Variance Hedges," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 353-364.
    5. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    6. John M. Charnes & Paul Koch & Henk Berkman, 2003. "Measuring Hedge Effectiveness For Fas 133 Compliance," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 15(4), pages 95-103, September.
    7. Kim, Jae & Doucouliagos, Hristos & Stanley, T. D., 2014. "Market efficiency in Asian and Australasian stock markets: a fresh look at the evidence," Working Papers eco_2014_9, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    8. Dewally, Michaël & Shao, Yingying, 2013. "Financial derivatives, opacity, and crash risk: Evidence from large US banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 565-577.
    9. Stephen E. Miller, 1982. "Forward pricing feeder pigs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 333-340, December.
    10. Ted Juhl & Ira G. Kawaller & Paul D. Koch, 2012. "The Effect of the Hedge Horizon on Optimal Hedge Size and Effectiveness When Prices are Cointegrated," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(9), pages 837-876, September.
    11. Dennis W. Carlton, 1984. "Futures markets: Their purpose, their history, their growth, their successes and failures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 237-271, September.
    12. Bessler, Wolfgang & Conlon, Thomas & Huan, Xing, 2019. "Does corporate hedging enhance shareholder value? A meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 222-232.
    13. Bingxuan Lin & Chen-Miao Lin, 2012. "Asymmetric Information and Corporate Risk Management by Using Foreign Currency Derivatives," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-19.
    14. Howard, Charles T. & D'Antonio, Louis J., 1984. "A Risk-Return Measure of Hedging Effectiveness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 101-112, March.
    15. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    16. Peter Dadalt & Gerald D. Gay & Jouahn Nam, 2002. "Asymmetric information and corporate derivatives use," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 241-267, March.
    17. Gay, Gerald D. & Lin, Chen-Miao & Smith, Stephen D., 2011. "Corporate derivatives use and the cost of equity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1491-1506, June.
    18. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Perera, Devmali, 2019. "Stock index futures arbitrage: Evidence from a meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 284-294.
    19. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Time-Series Minimum-Wage Studies: A Meta-analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 238-243, May.
    20. Carter, Colin A., 1984. "An Evaluation Of Pricing Performance And Hedging Effectiveness Of The Barley Futures Market," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, July.
    21. Philip Garcia, 2004. "A selected review of agricultural commodity futures and options markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(3), pages 235-272, September.
    22. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-630, November.
    23. B. Wade Brorsen & Darren W. Buck & Stephen R. Koontz, 1998. "Hedging hard red winter wheat: Kansas City versus Chicago," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 449-466, June.
    24. Altman, Ira J. & Sanders, Dwight & Schneider, Jonathan, 2008. "Producer-Level Hedging Effectiveness of Class III Milk Futures," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2008, pages 1-8.
    25. Wimmer, Thomas & Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome & Hütter, Marie & Schmid, Florian & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2021. "The impact of speculation on commodity prices: A Meta-Granger analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    26. Megan Linde Leonard & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2014. "Does the UK Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? A Meta-Regression Analysis," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 499-520, September.
    27. Philip Arestis & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2015. "The Financial Development And Growth Nexus: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 549-565, July.
    28. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Tokunaga, Masahiro, 2014. "Macroeconomic Impacts of FDI in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 53-69.
    29. K. C. Chen & R. Stephen Sears & Dah‐Nein Tzang, 1987. "Oil prices and energy futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(5), pages 501-518, October.
    30. Da‐Hsiang Donald Lien, 1996. "The effect of the cointegration relationship on futures hedging: A note," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(7), pages 773-780, October.
    31. Lence, Sergio H., 1996. "Relaxing The Assumptions Of Minimum-Variance Hedging," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-17, July.
    32. Jędrzej Białkowski & Jan Koeman, 2018. "Does the design of spot markets matter for the success of futures markets? Evidence from dairy futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 373-389, March.
    33. Franken, Jason R.V. & Parcell, Joseph L., 2003. "Cash Ethanol Cross-Hedging Opportunities," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1-8, December.
    34. Joanne Hill & Thomas Schneeweis, 1981. "A note on the hedging effectiveness of foreign currency futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(4), pages 659-664, December.
    35. Asim Ghosh, 1993. "Hedging with stock index futures: Estimation and forecasting with error correction model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 743-752, October.
    36. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    37. T. D. Stanley, 2008. "Meta‐Regression Methods for Detecting and Estimating Empirical Effects in the Presence of Publication Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 103-127, February.
    38. Chin‐Wen Hsln & Jerry Kuo & Cheng‐Few Lee, 1994. "A new measure to compare the hedging effectiveness of foreign currency futures versus options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(6), pages 685-707, September.
    39. Gray, Roger W. & Rutledge, David J.S., 1971. "The Economics of Commodity Futures Markets: A Survey," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 39(04), pages 1-52, December.
    40. Diana Zigraiova & Tomas Havranek, 2016. "Bank Competition And Financial Stability: Much Ado About Nothing?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 944-981, December.
    41. Anton Bekkerman, 2011. "Time‐varying hedge ratios in linked agricultural markets," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(2), pages 179-200, August.
    42. Paul L. Fackler & Kevin P. McNew, 1993. "Multiproduct Hedging: Theory, Estimation, and an Application," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(3), pages 521-535.
    43. Jerome Geyer-Klingeberg & Markus Hang & Andreas W. Rathgeber & Stefan Stöckl & Matthias Walter, 2018. "What do we really know about corporate hedging? A meta-analytical study," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, February.
    44. Mattos, Fabio & Garcia, Philip & Nelson, Carl, 2008. "Relaxing standard hedging assumptions in the presence of downside risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 78-93, February.
    45. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Zuppiroli, Marco, 2013. "Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain?," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 2(3), pages 1-19, December.
    46. Stefan Stöckl & J. Geyer-Klingeberg & M. Hang & Andreas Rathgeber & M. Walter, 2015. "What do we really know about corporate hedging? A multimethod meta-analytical study," Post-Print hal-01507869, HAL.
    47. Brinker, Adam J. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Franken, Jason R.V., 2009. "Cross-Hedging Distillers Dried Grains Using Corn and Soybean Meal Futures Contracts," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 27(1-2), pages 1-15.
    48. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2009. "Short-run deviations and time-varying hedge ratios: Evidence from agricultural futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 58-65, March.
    49. C. Sherman Cheung & Clarence C. Y. Kwan & Patrick C. Y. Yip, 1990. "The hedging effectiveness of options and futures: A mean‐gini approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 61-73, February.
    50. Efendic, Adnan & Pugh, Geoff & Adnett, Nick, 2011. "Institutions and economic performance: A meta-regression analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 586-599, September.
    51. Abe De Jong & Frans De Roon & Chris Veld, 1997. "Out‐of‐sample hedging effectiveness of currency futures for alternative models and hedging strategies," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(7), pages 817-837, October.
    52. Joan Costa‐Font & Marin Gemmill & Gloria Rubert, 2011. "Biases in the healthcare luxury good hypothesis?: a meta‐regression analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(1), pages 95-107, January.
    53. T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, July.
    54. Carter, Colin A., 1999. "Commodity futures markets: a survey," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(2), pages 1-39, June.
    55. Awaworyi Churchill, S. & Yew, S.L., 2017. "Are government transfers harmful to economic growth? A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 270-287.
    56. Simon Benninga & Rafael Eldor & Itzhak Zilcha, 1984. "The optimal hedge ratio in unbiased futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 155-159, June.
    57. Sheng‐Syan Chen & Cheng‐Few Lee & Keshab Shrestha, 2004. "An empirical analysis of the relationship between the hedge ratio and hedging horizon: A simultaneous estimation of the short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 359-386, April.
    58. Stewart L. Brown, 1985. "A Reformulation of the Portfolio Model of Hedging," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(3), pages 508-512.
    59. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    60. Anton Astakhov & Tomas Havranek & Jiri Novak, 2017. "Firm Size and Stock Returns: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2017/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2017.
    61. Robert W. Kolb & John Okunev, 1992. "An empirical evaluation of the extended mean‐gini coefficient for futures hedging," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 177-186, April.
    62. Kim, Seon-Woong & Brorsen, B. Wade & Yoon, Byung-Sam, 2015. "Cross Hedging Winter Canola," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 462-481, November.
    63. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Lee, Cheng-few & Shrestha, Keshab, 2003. "Futures hedge ratios: a review," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 433-465.
    64. Robert J. Myers, 1991. "Estimating time‐varying optimal hedge ratios on futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 39-53, February.
    65. Chris Doucouliagos & T.D. Stanley, 2013. "Are All Economic Facts Greatly Exaggerated? Theory Competition And Selectivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 316-339, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Perera, Devmali, 2023. "Commodity futures hedge ratios: A meta-analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    2. Shrestha, Keshab & Subramaniam, Ravichandran & Rassiah, Puspavathy, 2017. "Pure martingale and joint normality tests for energy futures contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 174-184.
    3. Barbi, Massimiliano & Romagnoli, Silvia, 2018. "Skewness, basis risk, and optimal futures demand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 14-29.
    4. Wenming Shi & Kevin X. Li & Zhongzhi Yang & Ganggang Wang, 2017. "Time-varying copula models in the shipping derivatives market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1039-1058, November.
    5. Shashi Gupta & Himanshu Choudhary & D.R. Agarwal, 2017. "Hedging Efficiency of Indian Commodity Futures," Paradigm, , vol. 21(1), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome & Hang, Markus & Rathgeber, Andreas W., 2019. "What drives financial hedging? A meta-regression analysis of corporate hedging determinants," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 203-221.
    7. Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome & Hang, Markus & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2020. "Meta-analysis in finance research: Opportunities, challenges, and contemporary applications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. repec:wly:econjl:v::y:2017:i:605:p:f236-f265 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. You‐How Go & Jia‐Jun Teo & Kam Fong Chan, 2023. "The effectiveness of crude oil futures hedging during infectious disease outbreaks in the 21st century," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1559-1575, November.
    10. Hang, Markus & Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome & Rathgeber, Andreas W. & Stöckl, Stefan, 2018. "Measurement matters—A meta-study of the determinants of corporate capital structure," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 211-225.
    11. Su, EnDer, 2017. "Stock index hedging using a trend and volatility regime-switching model involving hedging cost," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 233-254.
    12. John P. A. Ioannidis & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2017. "The Power of Bias in Economics Research," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 236-265, October.
    13. Carlotta Penone & Elisa Giampietri & Samuele Trestini, 2021. "Hedging Effectiveness of Commodity Futures Contracts to Minimize Price Risk: Empirical Evidence from the Italian Field Crop Sector," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Perera, Devmali, 2019. "Stock index futures arbitrage: Evidence from a meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 284-294.
    15. Stefan Stöckl, 2017. "Measurement matters - A meta-Study of the determinants of corporate capital structure," Post-Print hal-01772346, HAL.
    16. Jindrich Matousek & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2022. "Individual discount rates: a meta-analysis of experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 318-358, February.
    17. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2014. "Structural reforms and growth in transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(1), pages 13-42, January.
    18. Bessler, Wolfgang & Wolff, Dominik, 2014. "Hedging European government bond portfolios during the recent sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 379-399.
    19. Gurmeet Singh, 2017. "Estimating Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the NSE Index Futures," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(2), pages 108-131, December.
    20. Jui-Cheng Hung & Chien-Liang Chiu & Ming-Chih Lee, 2006. "Hedging with zero-value at risk hedge ratio," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 259-269.
    21. Donald Lien & Keshab Shrestha, 2005. "Estimating the optimal hedge ratio with focus information criterion," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(10), pages 1011-1024, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity markets; Derivative accounting; Hedging effectiveness; Metaanalysis; Optimal hedge ratio; 80-125 rule; Publication bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:22/12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Albert Yee (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decannz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.