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Relaxing Standard Hedging Assumptions in the Presence of Downside Risk

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  • Mattos, Fabio
  • Garcia, Philip
  • Nelson, Carl H.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze how the introduction of a downside risk measure and less restrictive assumptions can change the optimal hedge ratio in the standard hedging problem. Based on a dataset of futures and cash prices for soybeans in the U.S., the empirical findings indicate that optimal hedge ratios change dramatically when a one-sided risk measure is adopted and standard assumptions are relaxed. Further, the results suggest that in a downside risk framework with realistic hedging assumptions there is little or no incentive for farmers to hedge.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri with number 19040.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrfiv:19040

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Web page: http://www.agebb.missouri.edu/ncrext/ncr134/

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Keywords: Marketing;

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References

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  1. Peck, Anne E. & Nahmias, Antoinette M., 1989. "Hedging Your Advice: Do Portfolio Models Explain Hedging?," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 02.
  2. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Lee, Cheng-few & Shrestha, Keshab, 2003. "Futures hedge ratios: a review," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 433-465.
  3. Robert A. Collins, 1997. "Toward a Positive Economic Theory of Hedging," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 488-499.
  4. Babak Eftekhari, 1998. "Lower partial moment hedge ratios," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 645-652.
  5. Carl H. Nelson, 2004. "Toward exploring the location-scale condition: a constant relative risk aversion location-scale objective function," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 273-287, September.
  6. Grootveld, Henk & Hallerbach, Winfried, 1999. "Variance vs downside risk: Is there really that much difference?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 304-319, April.
  7. Lence, Sergio H., 1996. "Relaxing The Assumptions Of Minimum-Variance Hedging," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(01), July.
  8. Gollier, Christian & Pratt, John W, 1996. "Risk Vulnerability and the Tempering Effect of Background Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1109-23, September.
  9. Donald Lien & Yiu Kuen Tse, 2000. "Hedging downside risk with futures contracts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 163-170.
  10. Lien, Donald & Tse, Y K, 2002. " Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-96, July.
  11. Unser, Matthias, 2000. "Lower partial moments as measures of perceived risk: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 253-280, June.
  12. Lence, Sergio H., 1995. "The Economic Value of Minimum-Variance Hedges," Staff General Research Papers 5053, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  13. Demirer, Riza & Lien, Donald, 2003. "Downside risk for short and long hedgers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 25-44.
  14. Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-26, March.
  15. Meyer, Jack, 1987. "Two-moment Decision Models and Expected Utility Maximization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 421-30, June.
  16. Turvey, Calum G. & Nayak, Govindaray, 2003. "The Semivariance-Minimizing Hedge Ratio," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(01), April.
  17. Philip Garcia, 2004. "A selected review of agricultural commodity futures and options markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 235-272, September.
  18. Lien, Donald & Tse, Yiu Kuen, 2001. "Hedging downside risk: futures vs. options," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 159-169.
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Cited by:
  1. Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2008. "The Shape of the Optimal Hedge Ratio: Modeling Joint Spot-Futures Prices using an Empirical Copula-GARCH Model," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37609, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  2. Woodard, Joshua D. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Schnitkey, Gary D., 2009. "Revenue Risk Reduction Impacts of Crop Insurance in a Multi-Crop Framework," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53043, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

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