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The Shape of the Optimal Hedge Ratio: Modeling Joint Spot-Futures Prices using an Empirical Copula-GARCH Model

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  • Power, Gabriel J.
  • Vedenov, Dmitry V.

Abstract

Commodity cash and futures prices have been rising steadily since 2006. As evidenced by the April 2008 Commodity Futures Trading Commission Agricultural Forum, there is much concern among traditional futures and options market participants that the usefulness of commodity derivatives has been compromised. When basis risk is particularly high, dynamic hedging methods may be helpful despite their complexity and higher transaction costs. To assess the potential benefits of dynamic hedging in volatile times, this paper proposes a novel, empirical copula-based method to estimate GARCH models and to compute time-varying hedge ratios. This approach allows a nonlinear, asymmetric dependence structure between cash and futures prices. The paper addresses four principal questions: (1) Does the empirical copula-GARCH method overcome traditional limitations of dynamic hedging methods? (2) How does the empirical copula- GARCH hedging approach perform, for storable agricultural commodities, compared with traditional GARCH and Minimum Variance (static) hedging methods? (3) Is dynamic hedging more or less effective in the post-2006 biofuels expansion time period? (4) How sensitive is the ranking of methods to the hedging effectiveness criterion used? Preliminary findings suggest that the empirical copula-GARCH approach leads to superior hedging effectiveness based on some, but not all, risk criteria.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri with number 37609.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:nccest:37609

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Keywords: Agricultural Finance;

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References

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  1. Haigh, Michael S. & Holt, Matthew T., 2002. "Hedging Foreign Currency, Freight And Commodity Futures Portfolios: A Note," Working Papers 28573, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
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  7. Koedijk, Kees & Kole, Erik & Verbeek, Marno, 2006. "Selecting Copulas for Risk Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 5652, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  15. Cotter, John & Hanly, James, 2005. "Re-evaluating Hedging Performance," MPRA Paper 3523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Mattos, Fabio & Garcia, Philip & Nelson, Carl, 2008. "Relaxing standard hedging assumptions in the presence of downside risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 78-93, February.
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  20. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2000. "Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 881-896.
  21. Lien, Donald, 2005. "The use and abuse of the hedging effectiveness measure," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 277-282.
  22. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2004. "Comparing Hedging Effectiveness: An Application of the Encompassing Principle," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(01), April.
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Cited by:
  1. Liu, Xiaochun & Jacobsen, Brian, 2011. "The Dynamic International Optimal Hedge Ratio," MPRA Paper 35260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Vadhindran K. Rao, 2011. "Multiperiod Hedging using Futures: Mean Reversion and the Optimal Hedging Path," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 133-161, December.

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