Value-at-Risk for Country Risk Ratings
AbstractThe country risk literature argues that country risk ratings have a direct impact on the cost of borrowings as they reflect the probability of debt default by a country. An improvement in country risk ratings, or country creditworthiness, will lower a country’s cost of borrowing and debt servicing obligations, and vice-versa. In this context, it is useful to analyse country risk ratings data, much like financial data, in terms of the time series patterns, as such an analysis would provide policy makers and the industry stakeholders with a more accurate method of forecasting future changes in the risks and returns of country risk ratings. This paper considered an extension of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework where both the upper and lower thresholds are considered. The purpose of the paper was to forecast the conditional variance and Country Risk Bounds (CRBs) for the rate of change of risk ratings for ten countries. The conditional variance of composite risk returns for the ten countries were forecasted using the Single Index (SI) and Portfolio Methods (PM) of McAleer and da Veiga [10,11]. The results suggested that the country risk ratings of Switzerland, Japan and Australia are much mode likely to remain close to current levels than the country risk ratings of Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. This type of analysis would be useful to lenders/investors evaluating the attractiveness of lending/investing in alternative countries.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 10/29.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2010
Date of revision:
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Country risk; risk ratings; value-at-risk; risk bounds; risk management;
Other versions of this item:
- Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga & Suhejla Hoti, 2009. "Value-at-Risk for Country Risk Ratings," CARF F-Series CARF-F-169, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga & Suhejla Hoti, 2009. "Value-at-Risk for Country Risk Ratings," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-659, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2010-05-29 (Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2010-05-29 (International Finance)
- NEP-RMG-2010-05-29 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Single-index and portfolio models for forecasting value-at-risk thresholds," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 217-235.
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- C. H. Furfine & Jeffery D. Amato, 2003. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," BIS Working Papers 129, Bank for International Settlements.
- Michael Mcaleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Forecasting value-at-risk with a parsimonious portfolio spillover GARCH (PS-GARCH) model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1-19.
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- Ledermann, Daniel & Alexander, Carol, 2012. "Further properties of random orthogonal matrix simulation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 56-79.
- Köksal, Bülent & Orhan, Mehmet, 2012. "Market risk of developed and developing countries during the global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 37523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- San-Martín-Albizuri, Nerea & Rodríguez-Castellanos, Arturo, 2012. "Globalisation And The Unpredictability Of Crisis Episodes: An Empirical Analysis Of Country Risk Indexes / La Imprevisibilidad De Los Episodios De Crisis: Un Análisis Sobre Los Índices De Riesgo Pa�," Investigaciones Europeas de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa (IEDEE), Academia Europea de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa (AEDEM), vol. 18(2), pages 148-155.
- Cristina Alina Naftanaila, 2012. "Rating Based on the Country Risk," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 2(2), pages 126-135, April.
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