IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/risman/v24y2022i2d10.1057_s41283-022-00089-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prioritizing interdependent drivers of financial, economic, and political risks using a data-driven probabilistic approach

Author

Listed:
  • Abroon Qazi

    (American University of Sharjah)

  • Mecit Can Emre Simsekler

    (Khalifa University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Financial, economic, and political risks pose a significant threat to the development and progress of countries as such risks can impact all spheres of life including education, healthcare, logistics, transportation, and safety among others. Although these risks seem quite distinct, they are mutually influenced by multidimensional interdependent factors such as internal and external conflict, socioeconomic conditions, corruption, law and order, and bureaucratic quality among others. In this paper, we utilize a data-driven approach to explore dependencies among factors influencing financial, economic, and political risks and establish their relative importance in a network setting while capturing the entire distribution of individual factors. A probabilistic network-based model was developed using the data by the International Country Risk Guide, which revealed significant differences between the conventional and the proposed schemes for prioritizing drivers of political, economic, and financial risks. Internal conflict and socioeconomic conditions were considered as the most critical factors in terms of reducing and enhancing the network-wide risk exposure, respectively. The two prioritization schemes relative to the vulnerability and resilience impact of individual factors are not correlated and therefore, policy-makers need to focus on both schemes while developing risk mitigation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Abroon Qazi & Mecit Can Emre Simsekler, 2022. "Prioritizing interdependent drivers of financial, economic, and political risks using a data-driven probabilistic approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 164-185, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:risman:v:24:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1057_s41283-022-00089-8
    DOI: 10.1057/s41283-022-00089-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41283-022-00089-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41283-022-00089-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel McDowell, 2021. "Financial sanctions and political risk in the international currency system," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 635-661, May.
    2. Memmel, Christoph & Gündüz, Yalin & Raupach, Peter, 2015. "The common drivers of default risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 232-247.
    3. Dávid-Barrett, Elizabeth & Fazekas, Mihály, 2020. "Anti-corruption in aid-funded procurement: Is corruption reduced or merely displaced?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. McAleer, Michael & da Veiga, Bernardo & Hoti, Suhejla, 2011. "Value-at-Risk for country risk ratings," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1454-1463.
    5. Méon, Pierre-Guillaume & Sekkat, Khalid, 2012. "FDI Waves, Waves of Neglect of Political Risk," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2194-2205.
    6. Tang, Ryan W. & Buckley, Peter J., 2020. "Host country risk and foreign ownership strategy: Meta-analysis and theory on the moderating role of home country institutions," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(4).
    7. Werner, Christoph & Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger M. & Hanea, Anca M. & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2017. "Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 801-819.
    8. Qazi, Abroon & Dickson, Alex & Quigley, John & Gaudenzi, Barbara, 2018. "Supply chain risk network management: A Bayesian belief network and expected utility based approach for managing supply chain risks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 24-42.
    9. Gregory, Richard P., 2020. "Political risk and financial flexibility in BRICS countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 166-174.
    10. Brown, Christopher L. & Cavusgil, S. Tamer & Lord, A. Wayne, 2015. "Country-risk measurement and analysis: A new conceptualization and managerial tool," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 246-265.
    11. Ekici, Ahmet & Önsel Ekici, Şule, 2021. "Understanding and managing complexity through Bayesian network approach: The case of bribery in business transactions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 757-773.
    12. Adedipe, Tosin & Shafiee, Mahmood & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "Bayesian Network Modelling for the Wind Energy Industry: An Overview," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    13. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2019. "Financial development, income inequality, and country risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-18.
    14. Anna Shostya & Moshe Banai, 2017. "Cultural and Institutional Antecedents of Country Risk," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 351-364, September.
    15. HOSSAIN, Niamat Ullah Ibne & Amrani, Safae El & Jaradat, Raed & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Buchanan, Randy & Rinaudo, Christina & Hamilton, Michael, 2020. "Modeling and assessing interdependencies between critical infrastructures using Bayesian network: A case study of inland waterway port and surrounding supply chain network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    16. Doumpos, Michael & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2001. "Assessing financial risks using a multicriteria sorting procedure: the case of country risk assessment," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-109, February.
    17. Louis Anthony Cox Jr. & Douglas A. Popken & Richard X. Sun, 2018. "Causal Analytics and Risk Analytics," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis, chapter 0, pages 3-95, Springer.
    18. Dervis Kirikkaleli, 2016. "Interlinkage Between Economic, Financial, and Political Risks in the Balkan Countries: Evidence from a Panel Cointegration," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 208-227, May.
    19. De Juan, Alexander & Pierskalla, Jan & Schwarz, Elisa, 2020. "Natural disasters, aid distribution, and social conflict – Micro-level evidence from the 2015 earthquake in Nepal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    20. Ackermann, Fran & Howick, Susan & Quigley, John & Walls, Lesley & Houghton, Tom, 2014. "Systemic risk elicitation: Using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 290-299.
    21. Cavusgil, S. Tamer & Deligonul, Seyda & Ghauri, Pervez N. & Bamiatzi, Vassiliki & Park, Byung Il & Mellahi, Kamel, 2020. "Risk in international business and its mitigation," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(2).
    22. Hammer, P.L. & Kogan, A. & Lejeune, M.A., 2006. "Modeling country risk ratings using partial orders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 836-859, December.
    23. Goldszmidt, Rafael G. Burstein & Brito, Luiz Artur Ledur & de Vasconcelos, Flávio Carvalho, 2011. "Country effect on firm performance: A multilevel approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 273-279, March.
    24. Ratha, Dilip & De, Prabal K. & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2011. "Shadow Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 295-307, March.
    25. Liu, Jie & Wei, Wei & Shi, Yao-Bo & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2020. "The nexus between country risk and exchange rate regimes: A global investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    26. Aven, Terje, 2016. "Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 1-13.
    27. Wu, Jie & Ma, Zhenzhong & Liu, Zhiyang, 2019. "The moderated mediating effect of international diversification, technological capability, and market orientation on emerging market firms' new product performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 524-533.
    28. Liu, Jinyu & Zhong, Rui, 2017. "Political uncertainty and a firm's credit risk: Evidence from the international CDS market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 53-66.
    29. Hoti, Suhejla, 2005. "Comparative analysis of risk ratings for the East European region," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 449-462.
    30. Lis, Piotr, 2018. "The impact of armed conflict and terrorism on foreign aid: A sector-level analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 283-294.
    31. Oetzel, Jennifer M. & Bettis, Richard A. & Zenner, Marc, 2001. "Country risk measures: how risky are they?," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 128-145, July.
    32. F Ackermann & C Eden & T Williams & S Howick, 2007. "Systemic risk assessment: a case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(1), pages 39-51, January.
    33. Louis Anthony Cox Jr. & Douglas A. Popken & Richard X. Sun, 2018. "Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-3-319-78242-3, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qazi, Abroon, 2023. "Exploring Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 through the lens of country risk," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qazi, Abroon, 2023. "Exploring Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 through the lens of country risk," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Qazi, Abroon & Simsekler, Mecit Can Emre, 2023. "Nexus between drivers of COVID-19 and country risks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Abroon Qazi & Mecit Can Emre Simsekler & Steven Formaneck, 2023. "Supply chain risk network value at risk assessment using Bayesian belief networks and Monte Carlo simulation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(1), pages 241-272, March.
    4. Zhao, Na, 2019. "Managing interactive collaborative mega project supply chains under infectious risks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 275-286.
    5. Igor Pyrko & Colin Eden & Susan Howick, 2019. "Knowledge Acquisition Using Group Support Systems," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 233-253, April.
    6. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming & Li, Jianping, 2016. "Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 234-245.
    7. Röell, Christiaan & Osabutey, Ellis & Rodgers, Peter & Arndt, Felix & Khan, Zaheer & Tarba, Shlomo, 2022. "Managing socio-political risk at the subnational level: Lessons from MNE subsidiaries in Indonesia," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(3).
    8. Shashi & Piera Centobelli & Roberto Cerchione & Myriam Ertz, 2020. "Managing supply chain resilience to pursue business and environmental strategies," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 1215-1246, March.
    9. Terje Aven, 2020. "Risk Science Contributions: Three Illustrating Examples," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(10), pages 1889-1899, October.
    10. İhsan Pençe & Adnan Kalkan & Melike Şişeci Çeşmeli, 2019. "Estimation of the Country Ranking Scores on the Global Innovation Index 2016 Using the Artificial Neural Network Method," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(04), pages 1-16, June.
    11. Dang, Quyen Thao & Jasovska, Pavlina & Rammal, Hussain Gulzar, 2020. "International business-government relations: The risk management strategies of MNEs in emerging economies," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(1).
    12. San-Martín-Albizuri, Nerea & Rodríguez-Castellanos, Arturo, 2012. "Globalisation And The Unpredictability Of Crisis Episodes: An Empirical Analysis Of Country Risk Indexes / La Imprevisibilidad De Los Episodios De Crisis: Un Análisis Sobre Los Índices De Riesgo País ," Investigaciones Europeas de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa (IEDEE), Academia Europea de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa (AEDEM), vol. 18(2), pages 148-155.
    13. Eduardsen, Jonas & Marinova, Svetla, 2020. "Internationalisation and risk: Literature review, integrative framework and research agenda," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(3).
    14. DerviÅŸ Kirikkaleli & Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2022. "Time And Frequency Dependency Of Foreign Exchange Rates And Country Risk:Evidence From Turkey," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(1), pages 37-54.
    15. Ozkan, Kubilay S.L., 2020. "International market exit by firms: Misalignment of strategy with the foreign market risk environment," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(6).
    16. Guido Bonatti & Andrea Ciacci & Enrico Ivaldi, 2021. "Different Measures of Country Risk: An Application to European Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, January.
    17. Balima, Hippolyte Weneyam, 2020. "Coups d’état and the cost of debt," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 509-528.
    18. Ilhan-Nas, Tulay & Okan, Tarhan & Tatoglu, Ekrem & Demirbag, Mehmet & Wood, Geoffrey & Glaister, Keith W., 2018. "Board composition, family ownership, institutional distance and the foreign equity ownership strategies of Turkish MNEs," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 862-879.
    19. Benischke, Mirko H. & Guldiken, Orhun & Doh, Jonathan P. & Martin, Geoffrey & Zhang, Yanze, 2022. "Towards a behavioral theory of MNC response to political risk and uncertainty: The role of CEO wealth at risk," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1).
    20. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:risman:v:24:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1057_s41283-022-00089-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.