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Systemic risk elicitation: Using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks

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  • Ackermann, Fran
  • Howick, Susan
  • Quigley, John
  • Walls, Lesley
  • Houghton, Tom

Abstract

As evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of reported over-runs, managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with the need to effectively work with a multitude of parties and deal with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties. This paper describes a modelling process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process helps managers to develop a comprehensive appreciation of risks and gain an understanding of the impact of the interactions between these risks through explicitly engaging a wide stakeholder base using a group support system and causal mapping process. Using a real case the paper describes the modelling process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Ackermann, Fran & Howick, Susan & Quigley, John & Walls, Lesley & Houghton, Tom, 2014. "Systemic risk elicitation: Using causal maps to engage stakeholders and build a comprehensive view of risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 290-299.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:238:y:2014:i:1:p:290-299
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.03.035
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    13. Abroon Qazi & Mecit Can Emre Simsekler & Steven Formaneck, 2023. "Supply chain risk network value at risk assessment using Bayesian belief networks and Monte Carlo simulation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(1), pages 241-272, March.
    14. Durugbo, Christopher M., 2020. "Affordance-based problem structuring for workplace innovation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 617-631.
    15. Hafiz Wajahat Ali Shah & Imran Khan & Abdul Hameed, 2019. "Does Social Media Advertising Features Matter An Investigation of Consumer Purchase Intention," iRASD Journal of Management, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 1(1), pages 20-36, June.
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    17. Powell, J.H. & Mustafee, N. & Chen, A.S. & Hammond, M., 2016. "System-focused risk identification and assessment for disaster preparedness: Dynamic threat analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(2), pages 550-564.
    18. Shaw, Duncan & Smith, Chris M. & Scully, Judy, 2017. "Why did Brexit happen? Using causal mapping to analyse secondary, longitudinal data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(3), pages 1019-1032.
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