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Country risk measures: how risky are they?

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  • Oetzel, Jennifer M.
  • Bettis, Richard A.
  • Zenner, Marc
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    Abstract

    As global competition drives corporations into distant, unfamiliar markets, managers are searching for ways to minimize their uncertainty. When formulating their strategies for such environments, managers frequently rely on country risk analysis. Assuming that country risk analysis is an objective, fact-finding process, many managers fail to question these risk reports. The focus of this paper is on the usefulness of these country risk measures. Specifically, the purpose is to investigate the extent to which country risk measures can predict periods of intense instability. We examine eleven widely used measures of country risk across seventeen countries during a nineteen-year time period. Currency fluctuations are used as a surrogate for overall country risk. Results from the empirical analysis indicate that commercial risk measures are very poor at predicting actual realized risks. This result raises important questions about the usefulness of these measures and why managers still choose to use them.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of World Business.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 2 (July)
    Pages: 128-145

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:worbus:v:36:y:2001:i:2:p:128-145

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    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2014. "Political Risk Spreads," NBER Working Papers 19786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Marshall, Andrew & Maulana, Tubagus & Tang, Leilei, 2009. "The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 250-259, December.
    3. San-Martín-Albizuri, Nerea & Rodríguez-Castellanos, Arturo, 2012. "Globalisation And The Unpredictability Of Crisis Episodes: An Empirical Analysis Of Country Risk Indexes / La Imprevisibilidad De Los Episodios De Crisis: Un Análisis Sobre Los Índices De Riesgo Pa�," Investigaciones Europeas de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa (IEDEE), Academia Europea de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa (AEDEM), vol. 18(2), pages 148-155.
    4. Di Gregorio, Dante, 2005. "Re-thinking country risk: insights from entrepreneurship theory," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 209-226, April.
    5. Al Khattab, Adel & Anchor, John R. & Davies, Eleanor M.M., 2008. "The institutionalisation of political risk assessment (IPRA) in Jordanian international firms," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 688-702, December.
    6. Kool,Clemens & Ziesemer,Thomas & Haselmann ,Rainer & Holle,Stephanie, 2003. "Sovereign Risk and Simple Debt Dynamics in Asia," Research Memorandum 002, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. Chopra, Parvesh K. & Kanji, Gopal K., 2010. "On Measuring Country Risk: A new System Modelling Approach - La misura del rischio paese: un nuovo approccio system modelling," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 63(4), pages 479-515.
    8. Su-Yin Cheng & Jong-Shin Wei & Han Hou, 2008. "A Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity and Country Risk," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(3), pages 199-211, December.
    9. Hiranya K. Nath, 2008. "Country Risk Analysis: A Survey of the Quantitative Methods," Working Papers 0804, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    10. Oetzel, Jennifer, 2005. "Smaller may be beautiful but is it more risky? Assessing and managing political and economic risk in Costa Rica," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 765-790, December.
    11. Kranenburg,Hans,van & Hogenbrink,Annelies, 2003. "Determinants of Multimedia, Entertainment, and Business Software Copyright Piracy: A Cross-national Study," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    12. Kiymaz, Halil, 2009. "The impact of country risk ratings on U.S. firms in large cross-border acquisitions," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 235-247.
    13. Faouzi Boujedra, 2011. "Multinational Firm Behaviour under Country Risk In the riskiest Countries," Working Papers halshs-00736138, HAL.
    14. Haselmann,Rainer & Holle,Stephanie & Kool,Clemens & Ziesemer,Thomas, 2002. "Sovereign Risk and Simple Debt Dynamics: The Case of Brazil and Argentina," Research Memorandum 034, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Liu, Tengdong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Thompson, Mark A., 2013. "A momentum threshold model of stock prices and country risk ratings: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 99-112.

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