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Gaining and Losing ERM Credibility: The Case of the United Kingdom

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Masson, Paul R

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Abstract

The model of this paper highlights two aspects of credibility: signaling the type of government, which is assumed not to be known; and, for any type, the likelihood that if circumstances are sufficiently unfavorable a devaluation will be impossible to avoid, since not to do so would go against the government's interests. These two factors have opposite implications for the link between unemployment and interest differentials: high unemployment signals a tough government but also makes it less likely that even a tough government will maintain an existing parity. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 105 (1995)
Issue (Month): 430 (May)
Pages: 571-82
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:105:y:1995:i:430:p:571-82

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  2. Giuseppe Tullio & Afonso Ferreira, 2000. "Unemployment And The Credibility Of Exchange Rate Pegs: Evidence From The Brazilian Currency Crisis Of January 1999," Departmental Working Papers 134, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jesper Rangvid, 1997. "Deviations from long-run equilibria and probabilities of devaluations: An empirical analysis of Danish realignments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 497-522, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Willem H. Buiter & Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo A. Pesenti, 1995. "A Center-Periphery Model of Monetary Coordination and Exchange Rate Crises," NBER Working Papers 5140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Rodríguez López, Mª A., 2002. "Crisis de credibilidad de la peseta en las bandas del SME. Una aplicación del Modelo de Markov con saltos de régimen," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 599-626, Diciembre. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2002. "Credibility of EMS Interest Rate Policies: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive 361, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Virginie Boinet, 2002. "How to avoid self-fulfilling crises," Public Policy Discussion Papers 02-02, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Thomson Fontaine, 2005. "Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies: A Comparative Empirical Treatment," IMF Working Papers 05/13, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Peter Tillmann, 2001. "The Regime-Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials," IWP Discussion Paper Series 02/2001, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Juan Garcia, 1999. "The Collapse of the ‘New EMS’: An Interpretation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 203-219, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Allan Drazen, 1999. "Political Contagion in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Jean Pisany-Ferry, 1994. "Union monetaire et convergence : qu'avons nous appris ?," Working Papers 1994-14, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  15. M. Araceli Rodríguez López, . "Variables fundamentales o ataques "Self-fulfilling"? Una explicación a las crisis de credibilidad de la peseta española," Studies on the Spanish Economy 90, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Spronk, Jaap & Segovia, Trinidad & Evangelista, Juan, 2005. "Más de medio siglo en busca de una teoría sobre los mercados de capitales/More than half century looking for a capital markets theory," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 23, pages 29-44, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Renato Filosa, 2007. "Stress testing of the stability of the Italian banking system: a VAR approach," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0703, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica. [Downloadable!]
  19. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 1996. "Speculative Attacks: Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies," NBER Working Papers 5789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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