The common drivers of default risk
AbstractUsing a unique data set on German banks' loans to the German real economy, we investigate banks' credit risk. This data set includes the volume of loans per bank and industry as well as the corresponding write-downs. Our empirical study for the period 2003-2011 yields the following results: (i) Beyond the nationwide credit loss rate, industry composition, and regional factors, the loans' maturity structure is found to drive the bank-wide loss rates in the credit portfolio. (ii) The nationwide loss rate has the most impact, followed by the maturity structure and the industry composition. (iii) For nationwide banks, these common factors explain about 26% of the time variation in the loss rate of credit portfolios; for regional banks, this percentage is less than eight percent. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 36/2012.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
credit risk; systematic risk; maturity; stress tests;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gabriel Jiménez & José A. López & Jesús Saurina, 2008.
"Empirical analysis of corporate credit lines,"
Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers
0821, Banco de Espa�a.
- Kirschenmann, K., 2010. "The Dynamics in Requested and Granted Loan Terms when Bank and Borrower Interact Repeatedly," Discussion Paper 2010-63, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 709-37, August.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Treutler, B-J. & Weiner, S.M., 2003.
"Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0330, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
- Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 995, CESifo Group Munich.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & April, . "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-13, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Gordy, Michael B., 2000.
"A comparative anatomy of credit risk models,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
- Bornemann, Sven & Kick, Thomas & Memmel, Christoph & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2012.
"Are banks using hidden reserves to beat earnings benchmarks? Evidence from Germany,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2403-2415.
- Bornemann, Sven & Kick, Thomas & Memmel, Christoph & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2010. "Are banks using hidden reserves to beat earnings benchmarks? Evidence from Germany," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Klaus Düllmann & Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "A Tractable Model to Measure Sector Concentration Risk in Credit Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 55-79, October.
- Mario Quagliariello, 2007.
"Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
- Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "BanksÂ’ Riskiness Over the Business Cicle: a Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Kirschenmann, Karolin, 2010. "The dynamics in requested and granted loan terms when bank and borrower interact repeatedly," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 7, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- Flannery, Mark J, 1986. " Asymmetric Information and Risky Debt Maturity Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 19-37, March.
- Foos, Daniel & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2010. "Loan growth and riskiness of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2929-2940, December.
- Anil K. Kashyap & Raghuram Rajan & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002.
"Banks as Liquidity Providers: An Explanation for the Coexistence of Lending and Deposit-Taking,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 33-73, 02.
- Anil K. Kashyap & Raghuram Rajan & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Banks as Liquidity Providers: An Explanation for the Co-Existence of Lending and Deposit-Taking," NBER Working Papers 6962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anil Kashyap & Raghuram Rajan & Jeremy S. Stein, 1998. "Banks as liquidity providers: an explanation for the co-existence of lending and deposit-taking," Proceedings 582, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Dennis, Steven & Nandy, Debarshi & Sharpe, Lan G., 2000. "The Determinants of Contract Terms in Bank Revolving Credit Agreements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(01), pages 87-110, March.
- Behr, Andreas & Kamp, Andreas & Memmel, Christoph & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2007. "Diversification and the banks' risk-return-characteristics: evidence from loan portfolios of German banks," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Patrick Rey & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Short-Term Contracts as a Monitoring Device," NBER Working Papers 4514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
- Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2010. "Credit Line Usage, Checking Account Activity, and Default Risk of Bank Borrowers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3665-3699, October.
- Karolin Kirschenmann & Lars Norden, 2012. "The Relationship between Borrower Risk and Loan Maturity in Small Business Lending," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5-6), pages 730-757, 06.
- Jahn, Nadya & Memmel, Christoph & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2013. "Banks' concentration versus diversification in the loan portfolio: New evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 53/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.