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Common Factors in Default Risk Across Countries and Industries

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  • Kevin Aretz
  • Peter F. Pope

Abstract

Global economic crises appear to strongly affect corporate bankruptcy rates. However, several prior studies indicate that changes in default risk are strongly negatively related to equity returns, which in turn depend predominately on country†specific factors. This suggests that country effects – and not global effects – should dominate changes in default risk. To analyse this issue, we decompose changes in default risk, changes in the fundamental determinants of default risk and equity returns into global, country and industry effects. We proxy for default risk through Merton (1974) default risk estimates and CDS rates. Our evidence reveals that changes in default risk always depend most strongly on global and industry effects. However, the magnitude of country effects in equity returns correlates positively with economic stability, rendering it dependent on the sample period. Our results have implications for the management of credit†sensitive securities.

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  • Kevin Aretz & Peter F. Pope, 2013. "Common Factors in Default Risk Across Countries and Industries," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(1), pages 108-152, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:19:y:2013:i:1:p:108-152
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2010.00571.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Memmel, Christoph & Gündüz, Yalin & Raupach, Peter, 2015. "The common drivers of default risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 232-247.
    2. Bertoni, Fabio & Lugo, Stefano, 2018. "Detecting abnormal changes in credit default swap spreads using matching-portfolio models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 146-158.
    3. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2014. "Are All Credit Default Swap Databases Equal?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 677-713, September.
    4. Turalay Kenc & Emrah Ismail Cevik & Sel Dibooglu, 2021. "Bank default indicators with volatility clustering," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 127-151, March.
    5. Zvika Afik & Ohad Arad & Koresh Galil, 2012. "Using Merton model: an empirical assessment of alternatives," Working Papers 1202, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    6. Santiago Forte & Lidija Lovreta, 2015. "Time†Varying Credit Risk Discovery in the Stock and CDS Markets: Evidence from Quiet and Crisis Times," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 430-461, June.
    7. Jahn, Nadya & Memmel, Christoph & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2013. "Banks' concentration versus diversification in the loan portfolio: New evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 53/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. David Alaminos & Agustín del Castillo & Manuel Ángel Fernández, 2016. "A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, November.
    9. Mariusz Górajski & Dobromił Serwa & Zuzanna Wośko, 2019. "Measuring expected time to default under stress conditions for corporate loans," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 31-52, July.
    10. Nadya Jahn & Christoph Memmel & Andreas Pfingsten, 2016. "Banks’ Specialization versus Diversification in the Loan Portfolio," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 17(1), pages 25-48, April.
    11. Mardan, Mohammed & Stimmelmayr, Michael, 2020. "Tax competition between developed, emerging, and developing countries – Same same but different?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Guanming He, 2021. "Credit rating, post‐earnings‐announcement drift, and arbitrage from transient institutions," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(7-8), pages 1434-1467, July.
    13. Fernández-Gámez, Manuel Ángel & Soria, Juan Antonio Campos & Santos, José António C. & Alaminos, David, 2020. "European country heterogeneity in financial distress prediction: An empirical analysis with macroeconomic and regulatory factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 398-407.
    14. Somoza, Antonio, 2021. "The influence of the vulnerability of sectors on their survival and probability of insolvency: the case of small and medium entities in Spain || La influencia de la vulnerabilidad de los sectores en s," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 32(1), pages 148-174, December.
    15. Ioannis Anagnostou & Tiziano Squartini & Drona Kandhai & Diego Garlaschelli, 2020. "Uncovering the mesoscale structure of the credit default swap market to improve portfolio risk modelling," Papers 2006.03014, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    16. Afik, Zvika & Arad, Ohad & Galil, Koresh, 2016. "Using Merton model for default prediction: An empirical assessment of selected alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-67.
    17. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, June.

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