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Decomposing European CDS Returns

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  • Antje Berndt
  • Iulian Obreja
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    Abstract

    Nearly half of the variation in European CDS returns is captured by a novel factor that mimics economic catastrophe risk. During the financial crisis of 2007--8, this factor became more important relative to other sources of risk, leading to a shift in the correlation structure of CDS returns. Using equivalent CDS and equity portfolios, we show that while crucial for explaining temporal and cross-sectional variation in CDS returns, the factor plays a lesser role for equity. This is likely due to the limited sensitivity of the equity value at default to whether the event is of systemic or idiosyncratic nature. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by European Finance Association in its journal Review of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 14 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 189-233

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:14:y:2010:i:2:p:189-233

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    Cited by:
    1. Díaz, Antonio & Groba, Jonatan & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 529-563.
    2. Groba, Jonatan & Lafuente, Juan A. & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "The impact of distressed economies on the EU sovereign market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2520-2532.
    3. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2012. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt turmoil," CFS Working Paper Series 2012/13, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Lo, Chi-Fai & Lau, Chun-Sing, 2013. "Option-implied correlation between iTraxx Europe Financials and Non-Financials Indexes: A measure of spillover effect in European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3694-3703.
    5. Rodríguez-Moreno, María & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Systemic risk measures: The simpler the better?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1817-1831.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2011. "What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2914v9fh, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    7. Adrian Alter & Yves Stephan Schüler, 2011. "Credit Spead Interdependencies of European States and Banks during the Financial Crisis," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-24, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    8. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2013. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1558, European Central Bank.
    9. Baglioni, Angelo & Cherubini, Umberto, 2013. "Within and between systemic country risk. Theory and evidence from the sovereign crisis in Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1581-1597.
    10. Michał Adam, 2013. "Spillovers and contagion in the sovereign CDS market," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 44(6), pages 571-604.
    11. Angelo Baglioni & Umberto Cherubini, 2011. "Marking-to-Market Government Guarantees to Financial Systems.Theory and Evidence for Europe," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0103, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

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