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Modeling the distribution of credit losses with observable and latent factors

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  • Gabriel Jiménez

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Javier Mencía

    ()
    (Banco de España)

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    Abstract

    This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient model to estimate the credit loss distribution of the loans in a banking system. We consider a sectorial structure, where default frequencies and the total number of loans are allowed to depend on macroeconomic conditions as well as on unobservable credit risk factors, which can capture contagion effects between sectors. In addition, we also model the distributions of the Exposure at Default and the Loss Given Default. We apply our model to the Spanish credit market, where we find that sectorial default frequencies are affected by a persistent latent factor. Finally, we also identify the potentially riskier sectors and perform stress tests.

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/07/Fic/dt0709e.pdf
    File Function: First version, April 2007
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0709.

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    Length: 49 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0709

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    Web page: http://www.bde.es/
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    Related research

    Keywords: credit risk; probability of default; loss distribution; stress test; contagion;

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    1. Alfredo Martín-Oliver & Vicente Salas-Fumás & Jesus Saurina, 2007. "A Test of the Law of One Price in Retail Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2021-2040, December.
    2. Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
    3. Til Schuermann & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Visible and hidden risk factors for banks," Staff Reports 252, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Gabriel Jiménez & Jose A. Lopez & Jesús Saurina, 2007. "Empirical analysis of corporate credit lines," Working Paper Series 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Treutler, B-J. & Weiner, S.M., 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0330, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
    7. Max Bruche & Carlos Gonzalez-Aguado, 2006. "Recovery rates, default probabilities and the credit cycle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24524, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    9. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Schuermann, Til, 2006. "A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 569-614, March.
    10. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1985. "Testing Linear and Loglinear Regressions against Box-Cox Alternatives," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 499-517, August.
    11. Jimenez, Gabriel & Salas, Vicente & Saurina, Jesus, 2006. "Determinants of collateral," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 255-281, August.
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