This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Recovery Rates, Default Probabilities And The Credit Cycle

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Max Bruche ()
Carlos González Aguado () (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Default probabilities and recovery rate densities are not constant over the credit cycle; yet many models assume that they are. This paper proposes and estimates a model in which these two variables depend on an unobserved credit cycle, modelled by a twostate Markov chain. The proposed model is shown to produce a better fit to observed recoveries than a standard static approach. The model indicates that ignoring the dynamic nature of credit risk could lead to a severe underestimation of e.g. the 95% VaR, such that the actual VaR could be higher by a factor of up to 1.7. Also, the model indicates that the credit cycle is related to but distinct from the business cycle as e.g. determined by the NBER, which might explain why previous studies have found the power of macroeconomic variables in explaining default probabilities and recoveries to be low.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: ftp://ftp.cemfi.es/wp/06/0612.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by CEMFI in its series Working Papers with number wp2006_0612.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2006_0612

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Casado del Alisal, 5, 28014 Madrid
Phone: 914290551
Fax: 914291056
Email:
Web page: http://www.cemfi.es/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Irene Telo).

Related research
Keywords: Credit; recovery rate; default probability; business cycle; capital requirements; Markov chain.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  2. Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November. [Downloadable!]
  4. Renault, Olivier & Scaillet, Olivier, 2004. "On the way to recovery: A nonparametric bias free estimation of recovery rate densities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2915-2931, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrea Cipollini & Giuseppe Missaglia, 2008. "Measuring bank capital requirements through Dynamic Factor analysis," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 010, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Balázs Zsámboki, 2007. "Basel II and financial stability: An investigation of sensitivity and cyclicality of capital requirements based on QIS 5," MNB Occasional Papers 2007/67, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  3. Gabriel Jiménez & Javier Mencía, 2007. "Modeling the distribution of credit losses with observable and latent factors," Banco de España Working Papers 0709, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ethan Cohen-Cole, 2007. "Asset liquidity, debt valuation and credit risk," Quantitative Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU07-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gábor Vadas, 2007. "Wealth portfolio of Hungarian households – Urban legends and facts," MNB Occasional Papers 2007/68, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About five million pdf files are downloaded through RePEc every year.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.