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Credit risk and macroeconomic stress tests in China

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  • Philip Arestis

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Maggie Mo Jia

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

This paper examines the vulnerability of commercial banks in China to the changes in macroeconomic conditions by employing a macroeconomic stress test. We particularly focus on how the changes in housing market-related variables and the scale of shadow banking influence the credit risks of China’s entire banking system. Based on the result of a vector autoregression model, we proceed with a five-scenario analysis. Our main finding is the ability of shadow banking to absorb the credit risks of commercial banks rather than there being a spill-over effect, according to the data from Q1 2005 to Q2 2016. Moreover, the mortgage loan is risky to commercial banks during this period. In addition, our scenario analysis suggests that China’s banking system is relatively stable and that the Central Bank of China is capable of monitoring the credit risks of commercial banks using appropriate credit policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Arestis & Maggie Mo Jia, 2019. "Credit risk and macroeconomic stress tests in China," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 211-225, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jbkreg:v:20:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1057_s41261-018-0084-1
    DOI: 10.1057/s41261-018-0084-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Su, Chi-Wei & Cai, Xu-Yu & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Can bank credit withstand falling house price in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 257-267.
    2. Luminita Gabriela ISTRATE, 2020. "Integration Of Macroeconomic Variables In The Analysis Of Credit Risk And The Impact On The Rate Of Return Of Companies And The Degree Of Corporate Indebtedness," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(1), pages 173-181, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic stress test; Vector autoregression; Banking system; Central bank; Shadow banking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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