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“A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU”

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  • Raul Ramos

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Jordi Suriñach

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

Abstract

Due to ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and illegal migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour force. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, two different empirical analyses are carried out. First, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010; and, second, we focus on within EU-27 migration flows before and after the enlargement of the EU. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but South-South migration will also become more relevant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group in its series AQR Working Papers with number 201309.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision: Oct 2013
Handle: RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201309

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Keywords: absorptive capacity; inventor mobility; spatial networks; patents; regional innovation. JEL classification: J11; J15; J61; C23; C53;

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  1. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
  2. Hugo Gallardo-Sejas & Salvador-Gil Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & Jose Martinez-Serrano, 2006. "Determinants of European immigration: a cross-country analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 769-773.
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  6. Francesc Ortega & Giovanni Peri, 2009. "The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005," Working Papers 96, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  7. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Mathias Moser & Anna Raggl, 2013. "On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 5, WWWforEurope.
  8. Chris Tilly, 2011. "The impact of the economic crisis on international migration: a review," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 25(4), pages 675-692, December.
  9. Santos Silva, Joao & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Joan Llull, 2013. "Understanding International Migration: Evidence from a New Dataset of Bilateral Stocks (1960-2000)," Working Papers 715, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
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  12. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
  13. Jack DeWaard & Keuntae Kim & James Raymer, 2012. "Migration Systems in Europe: Evidence From Harmonized Flow Data," Demography, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1307-1333, November.
  14. Helena Marques, 2010. "Migration Creation and Diversion in the European Union: Is Central and Eastern Europe a 'Natural' Member of the Single Market for Labour?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 265-291, 03.
  15. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
  16. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2013. "The log of gravity revisited," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 311-327, January.
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