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The log of gravity revisited

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  • Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso

Abstract

This article evaluates the performance of alternative estimation methods for gravity models with heteroscedasticity and zero trade values. Both problematic issues, recently addressed by Santos Silva and Tenreyro in an influential paper, are re-examined here. We use Monte Carlo simulations to compare the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator recommended by Santos Silva and Tenreyro, a Gamma Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (GPML), a Nonlinear Least Squares (NLS) estimator and a Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimator with more traditional techniques. Additionally, estimates of the gravity equation are obtained for three different data sets with the abovementioned methods. The results of the simulation study indicate that, although the PPML estimator is less affected by heteroscedasticity than others are, its performance is similar, in terms of bias and SEs, to the FGLS estimator performance, in particular for small samples. GPML presents however the lowest bias and SEs in the simulations without zero values. The results of the empirical estimations, using three different samples containing real data, indicate that the choice of estimator has to be made for each specific dataset. It is highly recommended to follow a model selection approach using a number of tests to select the more appropriate estimator for any application.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2011.599786
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (January)
Pages: 311-327

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:3:p:311-327

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Cited by:
  1. Francesco Aiello & Federica Demaria, 2010. "Do Trade Preferential Agreements Enhance The Exports Of Developing Countries? Evidence From The Eu Gsp," Working Papers 201002, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza (Ex Dipartimento di Economia e Statistica).
  2. Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2013. "“A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU”," IREA Working Papers 201317, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2013.
  3. Alberto Alesina & Johann Harnoss & Hillel Rapoport, 2013. "Birthplace Diversity and Economic Prosperity," NBER Working Papers 18699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Innwon Park & Soonchan Park, 2011. "Best practices for regional trade agreements," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 249-268, June.
  5. Kareem, Fatima O., 2014. "Modeling and Estimation of Gravity Equation in the Presence of Zero Trade: A Validation of Hypotheses Using Africa's Trade Data," 140th Seminar, December 13-15, 2013, Perugia, Italy 163341, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Geloso Grosso, Massimo & Shepherd, Ben, 2009. "Liberalizing air cargo services in APEC," MPRA Paper 17781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2012. "Trade Costs and Economic Development," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 88(2), pages 137-163, 04.
  8. Umber, Marc P. & Grote, Michael H. & Frey, Rainer, 2014. "Same as it ever was? Europe's national borders and the market for corporate control," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 109-127.
  9. Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, 2013. "Revisiting the Effectiveness of African Economic Integration. A Meta-Analytic Review and Comparative Estimation Methods," Economics Working Papers 2013-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  10. Pierucci, Eleonora & Pericoli, Filippo & Ventura, Luigi, 2014. "Reassessing international investment patterns: a revisitation of Lane and Milesi-Ferretti's evidence," MPRA Paper 53585, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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