IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jcmkts/v48y2010i2p265-291.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Migration Creation and Diversion in the European Union: Is Central and Eastern Europe a ‘Natural’ Member of the Single Market for Labour?

Author

Listed:
  • HELENA MARQUES

Abstract

This article applies the concepts of trade creation and trade diversion to immigration into the EU‐15 in order to investigate whether during 1986–2006 there were any significant preference effects in favour of the CEECs (central and eastern European countries) that make them ‘natural’ members of the EU single market for labour. If this hypothesis is true, there should have been strong migration creation but little migration diversion in the last 20 years. The results broadly support migration creation for the CEECs prior to their EU membership. At the same time, the evidence of diversion away from other world regions is mixed. The combined impact of a common language and established communities, compared to distance and a common border, may contribute to the preservation of migration channels from outside Europe. Within Europe, to be an EU outsider can have a negative impact on migration channels. Moreover, whilst liberal immigration policies increase immigration contemporaneously, restrictive immigration policies only show an impact with a two‐year lag.

Suggested Citation

  • Helena Marques, 2010. "Migration Creation and Diversion in the European Union: Is Central and Eastern Europe a ‘Natural’ Member of the Single Market for Labour?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 265-291, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:48:y:2010:i:2:p:265-291
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5965.2009.02052.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2009.02052.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2009.02052.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jennifer Hunt, 2004. "Are migrants more skilled than non-migrants? Repeat, return, and same-employer migrants," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 830-849, November.
    2. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
    3. Nathan J. Ashby, 2007. "Economic Freedom and Migration Flows between U.S. States," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 677-697, January.
    4. Feenstra, Robert C. & Rauch, James E., 1999. "Symposium on business and social networks in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1, June.
    5. James E. Rauch & Vitor Trindade, 2003. "Information, International Substitutability, and Globalization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 775-791, June.
    6. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    7. Ram Dayal & Neeru Dayal, 1977. "Trade creation and trade diversion: New concepts, new methods of measurement," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 113(1), pages 125-169, March.
    8. Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost & Helena Marques, 2006. "A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path‐dependency in Integration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 1077-1089, August.
    9. Fernando Sanz, 2000. "A kalman filter-gravity equation approach to assess the trade impact of economic integration: The case of Spain, 1986–1992," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 84-110, March.
    10. Michel Beine & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport, 2007. "Measuring International Skilled Migration: A New Database Controlling for Age of Entry," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(2), pages 249-254, June.
    11. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, October.
    12. Kazuhiro KUMO, 2007. "Inter-regional Population Migration in Russia: Using an Origin-to-Destination Matrix," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 131-152.
    13. Truman, E. M., 1972. "The production and trade of manufactured products in the EEC and EFTA: A comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 271-290, November.
    14. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2003. "A generalized design for bilateral trade flow models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 391-397, September.
    15. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
    16. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1993. "Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262570971, December.
    17. David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
    18. Balassa, Bela, 1974. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the European Common Market: An Appraisal of the Evidence," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 42(2), pages 93-135, June.
    19. Tiiu Paas, 2000. "The gravity approach for modeling international trade patterns for economies in transition," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 6(4), pages 633-648, November.
    20. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants? [‘What a difference a constant makes: how predictable are international migration flows?’ in OECD]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 630-703.
    21. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    22. Giovanni Dosi & Richard R. Nelson, 2000. "An Introduction to Evolutionary Theories in Economics," Chapters, in: Innovation, Organization and Economic Dynamics, chapter 11, pages 327-346, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    23. John F. Helliwell, 1997. "National Borders, Trade and Migration," NBER Working Papers 6027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Julia Spies & Helena Marques, 2009. "Trade effects of the Europe agreements: A theory-based gravity approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 11-35.
    25. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. "Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-198, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Libman, Alexander & Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten & Yadav, Gaurav, 2013. "Are human rights and economic well-being substitutes? The evidence from migration patterns across the Indian states," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 139-164.
    2. Marchal, Léa & Naiditch, Claire, 2016. "A micro-funded theory of multilateral resistance to migration," Kiel Working Papers 2051, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Alfonso Arpaia & Aron Kiss & Balazs Palvolgyi & Alessandro Turrini, 2018. "The effects of European integration and the business cycle on migration flows: a gravity analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(4), pages 815-834, November.
    4. Ron Boschma & Simona Iammarino & Raffaele Paci & Jordy Suriñach & Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2017. "A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 108(1), pages 21-35, February.
    5. Cansu Ünver, 2015. "Does Broadband Facilitate Immigration Flows? A Non-Linear Instrumental Variable Approach," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 69-104, January.
    6. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Regional Labor Mobility in Finland," IMF Working Papers 2018/252, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Helena Marques, 2010. "Migration Creation and Diversion in the European Union: Is Central and Eastern Europe a ‘Natural’ Member of the Single Market for Labour?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 265-291, March.
    2. Libman, Alexander & Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten & Yadav, Gaurav, 2013. "Are human rights and economic well-being substitutes? The evidence from migration patterns across the Indian states," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 139-164.
    3. Helena Marques, 2008. "Trade And Factor Flows In A Diverse Eu: What Lessons For The Eastern Enlargement(S)?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 364-408, April.
    4. T. Huw Edwards, 2006. "Search and the Path-Dependency of Trade," Discussion Paper Series 2006_12, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2006.
    5. Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2013. "Gravity Model Applications and Macroeconomic Perspectives," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 48.
    6. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Felbermayr, Gabriel J. & Toubal, Farid, 2010. "Cultural proximity and trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 279-293, February.
    8. James Harrigan, 2001. "Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?," NBER Working Papers 8675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Groizard, José Luis & Marques, Helena & Santana, María, 2014. "Islands in trade: Disentangling distance from border effects," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-46.
    10. Shumilov, Andrei, 2016. "Особенности Оценивания Гравитационных Моделей Международной Торговли [Estimating Gravity Models of International Trade: A Survey]," MPRA Paper 75371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Noel Gaston & Douglas R. Nelson, 2013. "Bridging Trade Theory And Labour Econometrics: The Effects Of International Migration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 98-139, February.
    12. Carsten Herrmann-Pillath, 2006. "The true story of wine and cloth, or: building blocks of an evolutionary political economy of international trade," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 383-417, October.
    13. Mwebaze, P., 2018. "The Impact of EU Pesticide Residue standards on African Fresh Produce Exports to the UK," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275998, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. de Arce, Rafael & Mahia, Ramon, 2008. "Determinants of Bilateral Immigration Flows Between The European Union and some Mediterranean Partner Countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey," MPRA Paper 14547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Brülhart, Marius & Trionfetti, Federico, 2009. "A test of trade theories when expenditure is home biased," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 830-845, October.
    16. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2016. "Fitting the Gravity Model when Zero Trade Flows are Frequent: a Comparison of Estimation Techniques using Africa's Trade Data," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 230588, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    17. Nicolas Sauter, 2012. "Talking trade: language barriers in intra-Canadian commerce," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 301-323, February.
    18. Jean-Marc Siroën & Aycil Yucer, 2012. "The impact of MERCOSUR on trade of Brazilian states," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(3), pages 553-582, September.
    19. Felix Groba, 2014. "Determinants of trade with solar energy technology components: evidence on the porter hypothesis?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 503-526, February.
    20. Fabbri, D & Robone, S, 2008. "The geography of hospital admission in a National Health Service with patient choice: evidence from Italy," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 08/29, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:48:y:2010:i:2:p:265-291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-9886 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.