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“A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU”

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  • Raul Ramos

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Jordi Suriñach

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

Abstract

Due to ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and illegal migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour force. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, two different empirical analyses are carried out. First, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010; and, second, we focus on within EU-27 migration flows before and after the enlargement of the EU. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but South-South migration will also become more relevant.

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File URL: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2013/201317.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics in its series IREA Working Papers with number 201317.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision: Oct 2013
Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:201317

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Keywords: absorptive capacity; inventor mobility; spatial networks; patents; regional innovation. JEL classification: J11; J15; J61; C23; C53;

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  1. David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
  2. Hugo Gallardo-Sejas & Salvador-Gil Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & Jose Martinez-Serrano, 2006. "Determinants of European immigration: a cross-country analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 769-773.
  3. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  5. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
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  7. Chris Tilly, 2011. "The impact of the economic crisis on international migration: a review," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 25(4), pages 675-692, December.
  8. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2011. "Multilateral Resistance to Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 5958, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
  10. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Mathias Moser & Anna Raggl, 2013. "On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 5, WWWforEurope.
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  12. Helena Marques, 2010. "Migration Creation and Diversion in the European Union: Is Central and Eastern Europe a 'Natural' Member of the Single Market for Labour?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 265-291, 03.
  13. Douglas S. Massey, 1999. "International Migration at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century: The Role of the State," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 303-322.
  14. Jack DeWaard & Keuntae Kim & James Raymer, 2012. "Migration Systems in Europe: Evidence From Harmonized Flow Data," Demography, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1307-1333, November.
  15. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2013. "The log of gravity revisited," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 311-327, January.
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