A Model for Pricing the Italian Contemporary Art Paintings at Auction
AbstractThis paper aims to model the auction prices of Italian contemporary art paintings. The contribution to the existing literature is twofold concerning both the methodological and the conceptual aspects. From the former point of view, we use the two-stages Heckit model which allows us to take into account the sample selection bias deriving from the "buying" risk, that affects transactions at auction. From the latter point of view, we have found that some sale characteristics such as auction house prestige and year of sale, are more important than the physical aspects of the paintings. Moreover, some artistic characteristics, the artist's name and their living status are also relevant. An estimation using pre-sale evaluation by experts has also been tried: this explanatory variable seems to be the main driver regarding both the probability of having an unsold painting and the auction price levels reached by sold works. Nevertheless, the hypothesis of its sufficiency is rejected and some problems related to the economic interpretation of the results arise. The whole analysis is carried out after creating a new dataset of 2817 transactions which took place at the most important auction houses between 1990 and 2006.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali in its series Working Papers with number 316.
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Heckit model; auctions; painting prices; selection bias; statistical sufficiency;
Other versions of this item:
- Nicoletta Marinelli & Giulio Palomba, 2009. "A Model for Pricing the Italian Contemporary Art Paintings at Auction," EHUCHAPS, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
- C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
- D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Auctions
- Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Helen Higgs & Andrew C Worthington, 2004.
"Financial returns and price determinants in the Australian art market, 1973-2003,"
School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series
184, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2005. "Financial Returns and Price Determinants in the Australian Art Market, 1973-2003," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 113-123, 06.
- Skeels, Christopher L. & Vella, Francis, 1999. "A Monte Carlo investigation of the sampling behavior of conditional moment tests in Tobit and Probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 275-294, October.
- Corinna Czujack, 1997. "Picasso Paintings at Auction, 1963–1994," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 229-247, September.
- Pesando, James E, 1993. "Art as an Investment: The Market for Modern Prints," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1075-89, December.
- Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2006. "A Note on Financial Risk, Return and Asset Pricing in Australian Modern and Contemporary Art," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 73-84, March.
- G. Candela & A. Scorcu, 1997. "A Price Index for Art Market Auctions," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 175-196, September.
- Luc Renneboog, 2002.
"The monetary appreciation of paintings: from realism to Magritte,"
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 331-358, May.
- Renneboog, L.D.R. & Houte, T. van, 1999. "The Monetary Appreciation of Paintings: From Realism to Magritte," Discussion Paper 1999-62, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Douglas Hodgson & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Asset pricing theory and the valuation of Canadian paintings," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 629-655, August.
- Ginsburgh, Victor & Jeanfils, Philippe, 1995.
"Long-term comovements in international markets for paintings,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 538-548, April.
- Victor Ginsburgh & Philippe Jeanfils, 1995. "Long-term comovements in international markets for paintings," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/1717, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Ginsburgh, V. & Jeanfils, P., . "Long-term comovements in international markets for paintings," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1147, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Richard Agnello & Renée Pierce, 1996. "Financial returns, price determinants, and genre effects in American art investment," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 359-383, December.
- Chanel, Olivier, 1995.
"Is art market behaviour predictable?,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 519-527, April.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
- Madeleine de la Barre & Sophie Docclo & Victor Ginsburgh, 1994. "Returns of impressionist, modern and contemporary European painters, 1962-1991," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/1723, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Greene, William H, 1981. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error: Comment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 795-98, May.
- Anderson, Robert C, 1974. "Paintings as an Investment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 13-26, March.
- Stein, John Picard, 1977. "The Monetary Appreciation of Paintings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 1021-35, October.
- Chanel, O. & Gerard, L.A. & Ginsburgh, V., 1992.
"The Relevence of Hedonic Price Indices the Case of Paintings,"
92a19, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Olivier Chanel & Louis-André Gérard-Varlet & Victor Ginsburgh, 1996. "The relevance of hedonic price indices: the case of paintings," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/1715, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Zanola, Roberto, 2007. "The Dynamics of Art Prices: The Selection Corrected Repeat-Sales Index," POLIS Working Papers 76, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- A. Collins & A. E. Scorcu & R. Zanola, 2007. "Sample Selection Bias and Time Instability of Hedonic Art Price Indexes," Working Papers 610, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Heckman, James, 2013.
"Sample selection bias as a specification error,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
- Marilena Biey & Roberto Zanola, 2005.
"The Market for Picasso Prints: A Hybrid Model Approach,"
Journal of Cultural Economics,
Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 127-136, May.
- Locatelli-Biey, Marilena & Zanola, Roberto, 2003. "The market for Picasso prints: an hybrid model approach," POLIS Working Papers 34, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- Pagan, Adrian & Vella, Frank, 1989. "Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S29-59, Supplemen.
- Goetzmann, William N, 1993. "Accounting for Taste: Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1370-76, December.
- Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2002. "Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1656-1668, December.
- Marilena Locatelli Biey & Roberto Zanola, 1999. "Investment in Paintings: A Short-Run Price Index," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 209-219, August.
- Richard J. Agnello, 2002. "Investment Returns and Risk for Art: Evidence from Auctions of American Paintings," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 443-463, Fall.
- James Pesando & Pauline Shum, 1999. "The Returns to Picasso's Prints and to Traditional Financial Assets, 1977 to 1996," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 181-190, August.
- Patrick Georges & Aylin Seçkin, 2012. "Auction Prices of Classical Music Manuscripts – A Hedonic Approach," Working Papers 1202E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
- Ugo FRATESI, 2010. "The National and International Effects;of Regional Policy Choices: Agglomeration Economies, Peripherality and Territorial Characteristics," Working Papers 344, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Luca RICCETTI, 2010. "Minimum Tracking Error Volatility," Working Papers 340, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Elena AMBROSETTI & Eralba CELA & Tineke FOKKEMA, 2011. "The Remittances Behaviour of the Second Generation in Europe: Altruism or Self-Interest?," Working Papers 368, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Luca RICCETTI, 2011. "A Copula-GARCH Model for Macro Asset Allocation of a Portfolio with Commodities: an Out-of-Sample Analysis," Working Papers 355, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Alessandro STERLACCHINI, 2012. "Patent Oppositions as Competitive Tools: An Analysis of the Major Players in the European Market of White Goods," Working Papers 374, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Lenzu, Simone & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2012.
"Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4331-4341.
- Simone LENZU & Gabriele TEDESCHI, 2012. "Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies," Working Papers 375, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Fabio FIORILLO & Agnese SACCHI, 2010. "I Want to Free-ride. An Opportunistic View on Decentralization Versus Centralization Problem," Working Papers 346, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Alberto RUSSO, 2012. "A Stochastic Model of Wealth Accumulation with Class Division," Working Papers 373, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Eralba CELA & Tineke FOKKEMA & Elena AMBROSETTI, 2012. "Links Between Transnationalism Integration and Duration of Residence: The Case of eastern European Migrants in Italy," Working Papers 386, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Ruggero GRILLI & Gabriele TEDESCHI & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2012. "Markets connectivity and financial contagion," Working Papers 382, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maurizio Mariotti).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.