IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cfswop/200811.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Constructing the true art market index: A novel 2-step hedonic approach and its application to the German art market

Author

Listed:
  • Kräussl, Roman
  • Elsland, Niels van

Abstract

This study develops a novel 2-step hedonic approach, which is used to construct a price index for German paintings. This approach enables the researcher to use every single auction record, instead of only those auction records that belong to a sub-sample of selected artists. This results in a substantially larger sample available for research and it lowers the selection bias that is inherent in the traditional hedonic and repeat sales methodologies. Using a unique sample of 61,135 auction records for German artworks created by 5,115 different artists over the period 1985 to 2007, we find that the geometric annual return on German art is just 3.8 percent, with a standard deviation of 17.87 percent. Although our results indicate that art underperforms the market portfolio and is not proportionally rewarded for downside risk, under some circumstances art should be included in an optimal portfolio for diversification purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kräussl, Roman & Elsland, Niels van, 2008. "Constructing the true art market index: A novel 2-step hedonic approach and its application to the German art market," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200811
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/25546/1/577545752.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2006. "A Note on Financial Risk, Return and Asset Pricing in Australian Modern and Contemporary Art," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 30(1), pages 73-84, March.
    2. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Unnatural Value: Or Art Investment as Floating Crap Game," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 10-14, May.
    3. Luc Renneboog, 2002. "The monetary appreciation of paintings: from realism to Magritte," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(3), pages 331-358, May.
    4. Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2002. "Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1656-1668, December.
    5. Olivier Chanel & Louis-André Gérard-Varet & Victor Ginsburgh, 1996. "The relevance of hedonic price indices," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, March.
    6. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    7. Goetzmann, William N, 1993. "Accounting for Taste: Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1370-1376, December.
    8. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Abstract: Capital Market Equilibrium in a Mean-Lower Partial Moment Framework," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 635-635, November.
    9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    10. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Downside Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1191-1239.
      • Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Corinna Czujack, 1997. "Picasso Paintings at Auction, 1963–1994," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(3), pages 229-247, September.
    13. Marilena Biey & Roberto Zanola, 2005. "The Market for Picasso Prints: A Hybrid Model Approach," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 29(2), pages 127-136, May.
    14. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    15. de la BARRE, M. & DOCCLO, S. & GINSBURGH, V., 1994. "Returns of impressionist, modern and contemporary European paintings," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1114, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    16. Chanel, Olivier, 1995. "Is art market behaviour predictable?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 519-527, April.
    17. Douglas Hodgson & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Asset pricing theory and the valuation of Canadian paintings," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 629-655, August.
    18. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    19. Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2005. "Financial Returns and Price Determinants in the Australian Art Market, 1973–2003," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 113-123, June.
    20. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2004. "Art as an investment: risk, return and portfolio diversification in major painting markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 44(2), pages 257-271, July.
    21. Chanel, O. & Gerard, L.A. & Ginsburgh, V., 1992. "The Relevence of Hedonic Price Indices the Case of Paintings," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 92a19, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
    22. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Capital market equilibrium in a mean-lower partial moment framework," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 189-200, November.
    23. Pesando, James E, 1993. "Art as an Investment: The Market for Modern Prints," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1075-1089, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chanont Banternghansa & Kathryn Graddy, 2011. "The impact of the Droit de Suite in the UK: an empirical analysis," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 35(2), pages 81-100, May.
    2. Kompa Krzysztof & Witkowska Dorota, 2014. "Construction Of Hedonic Price Index For The “Most Liquid” Polish Painters," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 14(2), pages 76-100, December.
    3. Belma Öztürkkal & Aslı Togan-Eğrican, 2020. "Art investment: hedging or safe haven through financial crises," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 44(3), pages 481-529, September.
    4. Daiva Jurevičienė & Božena Kostecka, 2014. "Peculiarities of selection of investment artworks," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(5), pages 71-88.
    5. Dorota Witkowska, 2014. "An Application of Hedonic Regression to Evaluate Prices of Polish Paintings," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(3), pages 281-293, August.
    6. Binge, Laurie H. & Boshoff, Willem H., 2021. "Measuring alternative asset prices in an emerging market: The case of the South African art market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    7. Petrov, Nikita & Ratnikova, Tatiana, 2017. "The price index for the paintings of Henri Matisse: The sensitivity to the method of construction and connection with stock market and art indices," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 47, pages 49-73.
    8. Shailendra Gurjar & Usha Ananthakumar, 2023. "Presale Estimates and Auction Prices in Indian Art Market: Accuracy, Determinants and Motivations," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(3), pages 555-567, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kraeussl, Roman & Logher, Robin, 2010. "Emerging art markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 301-318, December.
    2. Marinelli, Nicoletta & Palomba, Giulio, 2011. "A model for pricing Italian Contemporary Art paintings at auction," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 212-224, May.
    3. Belma Öztürkkal & Aslı Togan-Eğrican, 2020. "Art investment: hedging or safe haven through financial crises," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 44(3), pages 481-529, September.
    4. Régis Blazy & Marie Blum, 2022. "Horizontal and vertical differentiation in comic art auctions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1382-1415, July.
    5. Aylin Seckin, 2006. "Art as an Investment under High Inflation: an Empirical Study on Turkish Paintings," EcoMod2006 272100081, EcoMod.
    6. Charlin, Ventura & Cifuentes, Arturo, 2013. "A new financial metric for the art market," MPRA Paper 50186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Luc Renneboog & Christophe Spaenjers, 2013. "Buying Beauty: On Prices and Returns in the Art Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 36-53, February.
    8. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Sari, Emre, 2018. "Dynamics of the Turkish paintings market: A comprehensive empirical study," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 180-194.
    9. Taylor, Dominic & Coleman, Les, 2011. "Price determinants of Aboriginal art, and its role as an alternative asset class," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1519-1529, June.
    10. Abderazak Bakhouche & Ludovic P.J. Thebault, 2011. "What Determines Cézanne’S Art Pricing? A Hedonic Regression Method," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 515-532, november.
    11. Helen Higgs & John Forster, 2014. "The auction market for artworks and their physical dimensions: Australia—1986 to 2009," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 38(1), pages 85-104, February.
    12. Fabian Y.R.P. Bocart & Christian M. Hafner, 2012. "Volatility of price indices for heterogeneous goods," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    13. Victor Ginsburgh & Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2006. "On the computation of art indices in art," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7290, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Agnello, Richard J., 2016. "Do U.S. paintings follow the CAPM? Findings disaggregated by subject, artist, and value of the work," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 403-411.
    15. Vecco, Marilena & Zanola, Roberto, 2017. "Don’t let the easy be the enemy of the good. Returns from art investments: What is wrong with it?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 120-129.
    16. Anna Lucińska, 2015. "The Art Market in the European Union," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 67-79, March.
    17. Fedderke, Johannes W. & Li, Kaini, 2020. "Art in Africa: Hedonic price analysis of the South African fine art auction market, 2009–2014," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 88-101.
    18. Petrov, Nikita & Ratnikova, Tatiana, 2017. "The price index for the paintings of Henri Matisse: The sensitivity to the method of construction and connection with stock market and art indices," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 47, pages 49-73.
    19. Marilena Locatelli-Biey & Roberto Zanola, 2002. "The Sculpture Market: An Adjacent Year Regression Index," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 26(1), pages 65-78, February.
    20. Assaf, Ata & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Demir, Ender & Kumar Mitra, Subrata, 2021. "Market efficiency in the art markets using a combination of long memory, fractal dimension, and approximate entropy measures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal Asset Allocation; Diversification; Art Investments; Hedonic Model; Downside Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200811. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifkcfde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.