External imbalances and financial fragility in the euro area
AbstractThis paper presents two views of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first is that the South in the euro zone has been fiscally irresponsible, and has failed to implement supply-side policies such as liberalizing labor markets and the market for services. The second view holds that the crisis reflects a deep divide between the external surpluses of the North and external deficits of the South. Basic stylized facts raise some doubt about the validity of the thesis that the debt crisis in the Eurozone is driven primarily by fiscal fragility in the South. A relatively simple model shows how poor fundamentals can create a debt problem independently of fiscal responsibility. The empirical analysis of the determinants of government bond yield spreads relative to Germany suggests that both views in fact provide useful insights into the roots of the current sovereign crisis. Fiscal fragility and external imbalances explain a significant share of the widening spreads since the onset of the global financial crisis. However, differences in labor productivity growth between North and South assume a much relevant role since the Greek crisis erupted in 2010.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences in its series Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers with number 66.
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Piazzale Martelli, 8 6012 Ancona
Phone: +39 071 220 7083
Fax: +39 071 220 7102
Web page: http://sites.google.com/site/mofirunivpm/
More information through EDIRC
Sovereign yield spreads; adjustment burden; external imbalances; monetary union;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-05-22 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2012-05-22 (European Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2010. "Rescuing Europe," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(SPECIALIS), pages 1-22, 08.
- Philip R. Lane & Barbara Pels, 2012.
"Current Account Imbalances in Europe,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009.
"Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2006. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 12376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "The European Balance of Payments Crisis: An Introduction," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(SPECIALIS), pages 03-10, 02.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012.
"Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB’s Rescue Facility," CESifo Working Paper Series 3500, CESifo Group Munich.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershaeuser, 2011. "Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB’s Rescue Facility," NBER Working Papers 17626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard, 2011. "Saving imbalances and the euro area sovereign debt crisis," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(Sept).
- Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
- Ugo Panizza & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2012.
"Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There a Causal Effect?,"
Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers
65, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
- Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2012. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," POLIS Working Papers 168, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012.
"Sudden stops in the euro area,"
- Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
- Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 388, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Michele Fratianni, 2012. "The Future International Monetary System: Dominant Currencies or Supranational Money? An Introduction," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-12, February.
- Emiliano Brancaccio, 2008. "Deficit commerciale, crisi di bilancio e politica deflazionista," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2008(96), pages 109-128.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Europa: una crisi di debito o di bilancia dei pagamenti?
by keynesblog in Keynes Blog on 2012-05-23 14:01:03
- Aby zwalczyÄ kryzys potrzeba innych narzÄdzi politycznych
by k.mokrzycka in Obserwator Finansowy on 2012-05-29 04:01:21
- Michele Fratianni & Antonio Maria Rinaldi & Paolo Savona, 2013. "Una proposta per ridurre il fardello del debito pubblico italiano," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 81, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
- Ernest Gnan & Ewald Nowotny & András Simor & Iain Begg & Andrew Bosomworth & Ugo Panizza & Elga Bartsch & Moritz Kraemer, 2013. "The Interaction of Political, Fiscal and Financial Stability: Lessons from the Crisis," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2013/1 edited by Ernest Gnan.
- Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2012. "Alberto Alesina: The Science of Using Political Economy Concepts to Explain the Macroeconomic Landscape," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 40(4), pages 351-365, December.
- Rosaria Rita canale & Ugo Marani, 2012. "Current account and fiscal imbalances in the Euro-area: Siamese twins in an asymmetrical currency union," Department of Economics University of Siena 659, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
- Ewald Nowotny, 2013. "Opening Address," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Daniel Gros, 2013. "Foreign debt versus domestic debt in the euro area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 502-517, AUTUMN.
- Fratianni Michele, 2012.
"150 years of Italian political unity and economic dualism: An Introduction,"
Rivista italiana degli economisti,
Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 335-346.
- Michele Fratianni, 2012. "150 years of Italian political unity and economic dualism: An Introduction," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 73, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
- Ernest Gnan, 2013. "The Interaction of Political, Fiscal and Financial Stability: Lessons from the Crisis - An Introduction," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- András Simor, 2013. "The Interaction of Political, Fiscal and Financial Stability: Lessons from the Crisis," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Mario Sarcinelli, 2013. "L'unione bancaria europea e la stabilizzazione dell'Eurozona," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 66(261), pages 7-42.
- Moritz Kraemer, 2013. "In the Debt Debate, our Sovereign Ratings have no Austerity Bias," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Andrew Bosomworth, 2013. "The Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis – Status Quo, Challenges and Prerequisites for a Solution from an Asset Manager’s Perspective," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Ugo Panizza, 2013. "The Politics of Debt and Debt Crises," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Elga Bartsch, 2013. "What is special about the Debt Crisis in the Euro Area?," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Linciano Nadia & Giordano Luca & Soccorso Paola, 2013. "Sovereign risk premia in the Euro Area and the role of contagion," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 66-70, January.
- Michele Fratianni & John Pattison, 2014. "Basel III, Clubs and Eurozone Asymmetries," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 94, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
- Iain Begg, 2013. "The Political Economy of Sovereign Debt Crises," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maurizio Mariotti).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.