Sudden stops in the euro area
AbstractThe single currency was expected to make balance of payments irrelevant between the euro-area member states. This benign view has been challenged by recent developments, especially as imbalances between euro-area central banks have widened within the TARGET2 settlement system. Current-account developments can be misleading as indicators of financial account developments in countries that receive significant official support. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain experienced significant private-capital inflows from 2002 to 2007-09, followed by unambiguously massive outflows. We show that such reversals qualify as â??sudden stopsâ??. Euro-area sudden-stop episodes were clustered in three periods: the global financial crisis, a period following the agreement of the Greek programme and summer 2011. The timeline suggests contagion effects were present. We find evidence of substitution of the private capital flows with public components. In particular, weak banks in distressed countries took up a major share of the central bank refinancing. The steady divergence of intra Eurosystem net balances mirrors this. In the short term, TARGET2 imbalances could be addressed by tightening collateral requirements for central bank liquidity. For the longer term, the evidence that the euro area has been subject to internal balance-of-payment crises should be taken as a strong signal of weakness and as an invitation to reform its structures.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bruegel in its series Policy Contributions with number 718.
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-04-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-04-10 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2012-04-10 (European Economics)
- NEP-IFN-2012-04-10 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2012-04-10 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:idb:brikps:6516 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jean Pisani-Ferry & AndrÃ© Sapir & Benedicta Marzinotto, 2010. "Two crises, two responses," Policy Briefs 392, Bruegel.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004.
"On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects,"
Research Department Publications
4367, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Guillermo Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Who's afraid of sovereign bonds?," Policy Contributions 695, Bruegel.
- Whittaker, John, 2011. "Intra-eurosystem debts," MPRA Paper 38368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011.
"Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB’s Rescue Facility,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3500, CESifo Group Munich.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershaeuser, 2011. "Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB’s Rescue Facility," NBER Working Papers 17626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bindseil, Ulrich & Winkler, Adalbert, 2012. "Dual liquidity crises under alternative monetary frameworks: a financial accounts perspective," Working Paper Series 1478, European Central Bank.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "The European Balance of Payments Crisis: An Introduction," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(SPECIALIS), pages 03-10, 02.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- La stabilisation macroÃ©conomique en Zone Euro (II)
by email@example.com (Simon Ganem) in BS Initiative on 2014-02-12 05:29:33
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruegel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.