IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v186y2011i1p465-49010.1007-s10479-011-0856-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A decision-making tool for project investments based on real options: the case of wind power generation

Author

Listed:
  • J. Muñoz
  • J. Contreras
  • J. Caamaño
  • P. Correia

Abstract

This paper presents how to apply a decision-making tool based on real options to assess the investment in a wind energy plant. The work shows six case studies where the main model’s parameters are analyzed. The uncertainty coming from wind regimes is simulated by using Weibull distributions and the volatility of market prices is obtained from the mean reverting process of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type, also known as Geometric Mean Reversion (GMR). From these and other values, such as investment and maintenance costs, the Net Present Value (NPV) curve, made up of different values of NPV in different periods of the investment is calculated, as well as its average volatility. Having the key parameters of the model, a real options valuation method is applied. The volatility, strength of reversion and long-term trend of the NPV curve reflecting different periods are inserted into a trinomial investment option valuation tree. From this, it is possible to calculate the probabilities of investing right now (exercise), deferring the investment (wait), or not investing at all (abandon). This powerful decision-making tool allows wind energy investors to decide whether to invest in many different scenarios. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

Suggested Citation

  • J. Muñoz & J. Contreras & J. Caamaño & P. Correia, 2011. "A decision-making tool for project investments based on real options: the case of wind power generation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 465-490, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:186:y:2011:i:1:p:465-490:10.1007/s10479-011-0856-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-011-0856-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10479-011-0856-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-011-0856-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    2. Metcalf, Gilbert E. & Hassett, Kevin A., 1995. "Investment under alternative return assumptions Comparing random walks and mean reversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1471-1488, November.
    3. Fleten, S.-E. & Maribu, K.M. & Wangensteen, I., 2007. "Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 803-815.
    4. Erkka Näsäkkälä & Stein‐Erik Fleten, 2005. "Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 371-393.
    5. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    6. Chung-Li Tseng & Kyle Y. Lin, 2007. "A Framework Using Two-Factor Price Lattices for Generation Asset Valuation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(2), pages 234-251, April.
    7. Chung-Li Tseng & Graydon Barz, 2002. "Short-Term Generation Asset Valuation: A Real Options Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 297-310, April.
    8. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Hanyu & Assereto, Martina & Byrne, Julie, 2023. "Deferring real options with solar renewable energy certificates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Hui-Ling Zhou & Bao-Jun Tang & Hong Cao, 2020. "Abandonment Decision-Making of Overseas Oilfield Project Coping with Low Oil Price," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1171-1184, April.
    3. Andreas Welling, 2017. "Green Finance: Recent developments, characteristics and important actors," FEMM Working Papers 170002, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    4. Farnaz Farzan & Khashayar Mahani & Kaveh Gharieh & Mohsen Jafari, 2015. "Microgrid investment under uncertainty: a real option approach using closed form contingent analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 235(1), pages 259-276, December.
    5. Chi Truong & Matteo Malavasi & Han Li & Stefan Trueck & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2024. "Optimal dynamic climate adaptation pathways: a case study of New York City," Papers 2402.02745, arXiv.org.
    6. Alexander, Carol & Chen, Xi & Ward, Charles, 2021. "Risk-adjusted valuation for real option decisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1046-1064.
    7. Christina E. Bannier, 2016. "Bewertungsmethoden in der Projektfinanzierung Erneuerbarer Energien [Valuation Methods for Renewable Energy Projects]," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 75-110, April.
    8. Carol Alexander & Xi Chen, 2021. "Model risk in real option valuation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1025-1056, April.
    9. Chun-Hung Chiu & Shui-Hung Hou & Xun Li & Wei Liu, 2017. "Real options approach for fashionable and perishable products using stock loan with regime switching," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 257(1), pages 357-377, October.
    10. Aleksandr Babkin & Nadezhda Kvasha & Daniil Demidenko & Ekaterina Malevskaia-Malevich & Evgeny Voroshin, 2022. "Methodology for Economic Analysis of Highly Uncertain Innovative Projects of Improbability Type," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    11. Trigeorgis, Lenos & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2018. "Real Options in Operations Research: A Review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 1-24.
    12. Yanzhao Li & Ju'e Guo & Yongwu Li & Xu Zhang, 2021. "Optimal exit decision of venture capital under time-inconsistent preferences," Papers 2103.11557, arXiv.org.
    13. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2023. "A review of the operations literature on real options in energy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 469-487.
    14. Locatelli, Giorgio & Invernizzi, Diletta Colette & Mancini, Mauro, 2016. "Investment and risk appraisal in energy storage systems: A real options approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 114-131.
    15. Delaney, Laura, 2018. "Investment in high-frequency trading technology: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 375-385.
    16. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    17. Haifeng Zhang & Feng Gao & Jiang Wu & Kun Liu & Xiaolin Liu, 2012. "Optimal Bidding Strategies for Wind Power Producers in the Day-ahead Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(11), pages 1-20, November.
    18. Cheng, Cheng & Dong, Kangyin & Wang, Zhen & Liu, Shulin & Jurasz, Jakub & Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "Rethinking the evaluation of solar photovoltaic projects under YieldCo mode: A real option perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    19. Gorupec Natalia & Tiberius Victor & Brehmer Nataliia & Kraus Sascha, 2022. "Tackling uncertain future scenarios with real options: A review and research framework," The Irish Journal of Management, Sciendo, vol. 41(1), pages 69-88, July.
    20. Kim, Kyoung-Kuk & Lee, Chi-Guhn, 2012. "Evaluation and optimization of feed-in tariffs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 192-203.
    21. Delaney, L., 2016. "Equilibrium Investment in High Frequency Trading Technology: A Real Options Approach," Working Papers 15/14, Department of Economics, City University London.
    22. Zhou, Shan & Yang, Pu, 2020. "Risk management in distributed wind energy implementing Analytic Hierarchy Process," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 616-623.
    23. Huberts, Nick F.D. & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1366-1389.
    24. Contreras, Javier & Rodríguez, Yeny E., 2014. "GARCH-based put option valuation to maximize benefit of wind investors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 259-268.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Briest, Gordon & Lauven, Lars-Peter & Kupfer, Stefan & Lukas, Elmar, 2022. "Leaving well-worn paths: Reversal of the investment-uncertainty relationship and flexible biogas plant operation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1162-1176.
    2. Seiji Harikae & James S. Dyer & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "Valuing Real Options in the Volatile Real World," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 171-189, January.
    3. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2003. "Gas fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and abandonment," MPRA Paper 217, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
    4. Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan, 2011. "Rôle du signal prix du carbone sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8200 edited by Keppler, Jan Horst.
    5. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2016. "Natural gas-fired power plants valuation and optimisation under Levy copulas and regime-switching," Papers 1607.01207, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    6. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    7. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    8. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
    9. Luis M. Abadie, 2009. "Valuation of Long-Term Investments in Energy Assets under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-31, September.
    10. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008. "Valuing flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1850-1881, July.
    11. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2009. "Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 10-22, January.
    12. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayová, Jana & Khabarov, Nikolay & Obersteiner, Michael, 2012. "Renewables and climate change mitigation: Irreversible energy investment under uncertainty and portfolio effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 59-68.
    13. Lee, Shun-Chung & Shih, Li-Hsing, 2010. "Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model -- The case of Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 67-78, September.
    14. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    15. Sebastian Sund & Lars H. Sendstad & Jacco J. J. Thijssen, 2022. "Kalman filter approach to real options with active learning," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 457-490, July.
    16. Wickart, Marcel & Madlener, Reinhard, 2007. "Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 934-952, July.
    17. Elias, R.S. & Wahab, M.I.M. & Fang, L., 2016. "The spark spread and clean spark spread option based valuation of a power plant with multiple turbines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-327.
    18. Kou, Ying & Luo, Meifeng, 2018. "Market driven ship investment decision using the real option approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 714-729.
    19. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2017. "Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants Valuation And Optimization Under Lévy Copulas And Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-38, February.
    20. Marcel Philipp Müller & Sebastian Stöckl & Steffen Zimmermann & Bernd Heinrich, 2016. "Decision Support for IT Investment Projects," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 381-396, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:186:y:2011:i:1:p:465-490:10.1007/s10479-011-0856-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.